Wednesday, August 05, 2009

3 Reasons why a Heatley trade isn't close

Don't worry, Biff, I'll come back next and give three reasons why Heatley WILL be traded before camp, but I thought I'd start with the less popular side of the saga. By the way, have we overused the word saga? Our friends over at the 6th Sens highlighted how we kept referring to Kovalev as an enigma, and now Heatley can be just referred to as the saga.

But back to our list. First off, this list is more in response to the intense rumour-mongering going on this week about inevitable trade of Dany Heatley.

1. San Jose and a three-way?

Forget it. First off, it doesn't take a capologist to know that Ottawa and San Jose are not likely to partner up on their own. Teams have until camp to get under the cap, but with SJ and Ottawa being at or over the cap, their next move will be to move salary out. So these teams won't work out a trade on their own without some assurances that both teams will fix their cap problems in the same breath.

So enter the three-way trade talk, right? The hot topic is Montreal, for some reason. Montreal doesn't have a single roster player of interest to Ottawa (or at least it had better not) and while the Euge has inquired about adopting PK Subban as his own son, he doesn't crack this year's lineup. So the only way Montreal would be involved would be to provide cap space to us and/or San Jose. Check that: the ONLY way Montreal is involved is to take cap space FROM San Jose so that the Sharks can absorb the Heatley salary. This also assumes that our return from SJ is a pair of roster players (and prospects or picks) that help us save $2M or more in cap space.

There's always the possibility of the third team in this deal being someone other than Montreal, but if the mighty Garrioch hasn't uncovered it, then it doesn't exist, says I. So to repeat from earlier, either Montreal is only helping with salary dumps, or the mystery third team is not the Habs. Does this sound ridiculous yet? That's because it IS ridiculous.

2. The Brian Elliot signing

Everyone was convinced that Murray was holding off on signing Elliot because he wanted to know his cap position after a Heatley trade. So with Elliot signed (last night), it must mean that he knows that Heatley is on the move and how much salary is coming back. Is that the concept? Hogwash! The minute that Alex Auld was traded to Dallas, the Brian Elliot signing became completely independent of the Heatley saga. Think about it - Elliot is our backup goalie and was going to be signed one way or another. The actual salary was probably well known in June. I don't really know why it took until now to actually get the ink on paper, but thinking that the signing is an omen for a Heatley trade is wishful thinking for those that are sick of this guy being a Senator.

3. The Edmonton standard

Whether you agree with it or not, Murray will not take a lower return than what he was getting from Edmonton. That was a fat forward, a young speedster, and a third pairing defenceman. Okay, when I put it like that, it doesn't sound as good. But seriously, he expected to get two top nine forwards (both with potential to be top six) and a defensive prospect. While we might think that since the Oilers offer is gone that Murray has to settle for a lower return (I thought that might be the case), we should know better of this stubborn old man from Shawville. From what we've seen of the GM, it is clear that he would rather just bring Heatley back in the Fall and purge Gator and Schubert before he'll get fleeced in a trade. So unless Doug Wilson the tire-kicker (or some other GM) spots us three cheap roster players, count on the saga dressing in Ottawa this season.


There you have it - the three-way trade doesn't add up cap-wise, the Elliot signing was inconsequential, and Murray is holding all new deals to the non-existent Oilers offer.

9 comments:

Canucnik said...

"Mr. Melnyk, sir, Dan Heatley is worth nothing until after the Olympics, even that dummy Canucnik knows this as fact!" says Bryan Murray

"I know, I know Bryan...they (BARRY/Heatley) think you are slow and I am a stooge." says Eugene.

"So let's slow walk "em...he wants to play for "Canada"...if he's a no show at camp, then we take the gloves off!" says Eugene Melnyk, Owner and caretaker of Dan Heatley's NHL Contract.

Contrary to what "Chirpy" and his gang thinks, Eugene says Heatley in concert with KOVY is great for season ticket sales.

Master Of Puppets said...

You know I like to maintain a master of bullshit title so the ominous 'here comes bad karma' side of me thinks the only way this could get worse is Dany running into a player Ulfie Samuelsson style during Olympic orientation and winding up with a 'career fucking' knee injury.

I'm in agreement with you here, Duff. I'm not sold on this Dany a Shark in 48 hours BS. They could swap salary so the current cap issues are the same, but why now? You could argue Wilson could do it now so he knows he has that piece locked up and then move forward with trading another asset (contract) to water down (pick up 3 players) and meet the roster/cap requirement. Or he could wait on Heatley, if he is indeed interested and not just putting the proverbial foot to the rubber, and do it in reverse. My money's on reverse.

Of course he does risk another team coming in and getting him (Dallas?) but the way this has dragged on the risk shrinks by the day, the only pressure is from the media/blogosphere.

Another thing - they might be enjoying all this attention, the Sharks probably haven't had this much since JT came to town and are totally relishing the being in the spotlight again.

Canucnik said...

Master of Bad Projections!

Keep your bad karma to yourself!

"Career injury", risk (repeated), risk shrinks, pressure you sound like an Insurance Agent...one of those guys that does not pay the claims.

The longer we slow walk this, the greater the pressure on Heatley. Judas Priest BARRY is offering future clients to GMs for nothing if they co-operate in a three team deal...sex; gf swapping; LA glamour three ways everything is on the table. Bryan has Scot bent over the work bench and JP is next.

We may not have to wait till after the Olympics, "Big Dan's" compensation is finally reaching my price range, which is tons heavier than those "Bozzo Bloggers" (read "Chirpy and his gang) were willing to take earlier in the saga.

I think I'm ready to...for the climax to...Dany Heatley; "Histoire de coeur". Good bye Dan, cause it was your boys who "Screwed the pooch".

Anonymous said...

Look, why do poeple insist on not taking BM for his word here. There is no pressure on BM here. He has Heatley signed, sealed, and delivered.

KJ

Anonymous said...

Well, we'll obviously see on the "delivered" part, but Ottawa has no futher obligation too Heatley, since they fulfilled their obligation by paying him.

So, if Heatley wants out, than the pressure is all on him.

KJ

Canucnik said...

KJ

We were trying to figure it out...Wilson... luke warm, with low ball offers, always including Cheechoo...Bryan... stone cold rebuffs...then it struck me it's Barry that "Weasel" trying to save his client, his job and his reputation is desparately trying to keep it on the front burner...why even that former horsesh&t agent Watters could have done better.

PS: I think BARRY should wear this one big time..."What the f&*k were you guys thinking?"

Sensay said...

The "Elliott" part is, as was relayed to me, more a matter of his signing influencing Murrays hand in negotiations.
The talk was Murray didn't want his number on the cap, for fear it would "tip his hand" in negotiations.
No doubt everyone knew he was going to be re-signed, but having his salary known, and in the open, could weaken Murrays bargaining position, so better it just remain in the weeds.
Is this true? I don't know, but, that was how it was explained to me.
I took (take) his signing as an indication that Murray has a better feeling for the Heatley situation, whether that be within striking distance of an "acceptable" package, or admitting it isn't going to happen any time soon, so, announce the deal. Which is it? Who knows? Not me.
GN

Canucnik said...

Boys:

The silver lining in this...Sens fans, the ticket buyers, season ticket buyers, like the idea of having both Kovy and "Big Dan" and these bums count (pun intended).

Eugene (approx. 1 month ago before a big TV interview) hung over like a rat and mad at the world gets a call in his Toronto Hotel Penthouse suite from Cyril..."Mr. Melnyk, sir, with all due respect, let's not do or say anything rash, tickets are really starting to move with Kovy and everyone is talking about how they would like to keep Mr. Heatley in a Sens sweater also."

Eugene responds: "Ya know Dan's not such a bad guy after all, when we signed him I knew there would be some ups and downs...this is bigger than Mr. Heatley...actually I think it's that loser BARRY working with that arsehole KELLY that started this whole mess...little guys trying to play "BIG"! Well "Leeder", my good man, they picked on the wrong fucking guy this time!"

Louis said...

The no show of Heatley at the Toronto OneGoal event speaks volumes about Heatley's (non) character. The eunuch (ie a man or boy whose testes are nonfunctioning or have been removed) hasn't manned up throughout any of this.

If he doesn't show at the Canadian Olympic orientation camp, he can kiss the 2010 olympic team goodbye. Although Germany would probably take him in a heartbeat if he doesn't play for Canada.

Personally, I hope he doen't play at the Olympics and does not show up for the Sens training camp. That way, Eugene can sue him for breach of contact. He can recover the $4 mil and any slary accruing to no-balls until he shows up.