Don't worry, Biff, I'll come back next and give three reasons why Heatley WILL be traded before camp, but I thought I'd start with the less popular side of the saga. By the way, have we overused the word saga? Our friends over at the 6th Sens highlighted how we kept referring to Kovalev as an enigma, and now Heatley can be just referred to as the saga.
But back to our list. First off, this list is more in response to the intense rumour-mongering going on this week about inevitable trade of Dany Heatley.
1. San Jose and a three-way?
Forget it. First off, it doesn't take a capologist to know that Ottawa and San Jose are not likely to partner up on their own. Teams have until camp to get under the cap, but with SJ and Ottawa being at or over the cap, their next move will be to move salary out. So these teams won't work out a trade on their own without some assurances that both teams will fix their cap problems in the same breath.
So enter the three-way trade talk, right? The hot topic is Montreal, for some reason. Montreal doesn't have a single roster player of interest to Ottawa (or at least it had better not) and while the Euge has inquired about adopting PK Subban as his own son, he doesn't crack this year's lineup. So the only way Montreal would be involved would be to provide cap space to us and/or San Jose. Check that: the ONLY way Montreal is involved is to take cap space FROM San Jose so that the Sharks can absorb the Heatley salary. This also assumes that our return from SJ is a pair of roster players (and prospects or picks) that help us save $2M or more in cap space.
There's always the possibility of the third team in this deal being someone other than Montreal, but if the mighty Garrioch hasn't uncovered it, then it doesn't exist, says I. So to repeat from earlier, either Montreal is only helping with salary dumps, or the mystery third team is not the Habs. Does this sound ridiculous yet? That's because it IS ridiculous.
2. The Brian Elliot signing
Everyone was convinced that Murray was holding off on signing Elliot because he wanted to know his cap position after a Heatley trade. So with Elliot signed (last night), it must mean that he knows that Heatley is on the move and how much salary is coming back. Is that the concept? Hogwash! The minute that Alex Auld was traded to Dallas, the Brian Elliot signing became completely independent of the Heatley saga. Think about it - Elliot is our backup goalie and was going to be signed one way or another. The actual salary was probably well known in June. I don't really know why it took until now to actually get the ink on paper, but thinking that the signing is an omen for a Heatley trade is wishful thinking for those that are sick of this guy being a Senator.
3. The Edmonton standard
Whether you agree with it or not, Murray will not take a lower return than what he was getting from Edmonton. That was a fat forward, a young speedster, and a third pairing defenceman. Okay, when I put it like that, it doesn't sound as good. But seriously, he expected to get two top nine forwards (both with potential to be top six) and a defensive prospect. While we might think that since the Oilers offer is gone that Murray has to settle for a lower return (I thought that might be the case), we should know better of this stubborn old man from Shawville. From what we've seen of the GM, it is clear that he would rather just bring Heatley back in the Fall and purge Gator and Schubert before he'll get fleeced in a trade. So unless Doug Wilson the tire-kicker (or some other GM) spots us three cheap roster players, count on the saga dressing in Ottawa this season.
There you have it - the three-way trade doesn't add up cap-wise, the Elliot signing was inconsequential, and Murray is holding all new deals to the non-existent Oilers offer.