Cory Clouston vs. Dany Heatley

Let me preface this by saying that while there is a strong chance that there is far more to this story than the “Coach yelled at me in front of everyone and I didn’t like it” story, that’s all we have to go on for now. His agents have talked about how Heatley didn’t like the treatment from the media, as well, but let’s focus a bit of time on the Clouston/Heatley relationship going forward.

One thing that nobody has talked much about is the immense amount of pressure this adds to Cory Clouston in 2009-2010. Think about it – he took over a bottom dweller at a point when we were begging for the summer. Expectations at that point were nil. We had no idea how to pronounce this guy’s name, let alone why he was picked to finish out the year. Every win he got was gravy for self-confidence (although it screwed up our draft pick).

But in finishing the year to a standing ovation and a summer of anticipation, Coach Clouston is about to see the other side of the Ottawa fanbase. Most of us are expecting a decent summer from Murray and a strong start from Pascal, resulting in a quick return to the postseason. We are about to see Cory Clouston coaching in an era of expectation, just like predecessors like Jacques Martin, Bryan Murray, John Paddock, and Craig Hartsburg all faced.

But here’s the ticker – as far as we have been told, Coach Clouston is also one of the main reasons that our leading scorer (he puts up 50 of them per year, sometimes) wants to leave Ottawa. I’ll repeat that – Dany Heatley asked to be traded out of Ottawa because he didn’t like the coach’s system.

Let me ask you this, Smithers: what happens if Dany Heatley opens up with a quick 10-12 goals in his first month in his new city while Ottawa stumbles, bumbles, and fumbles out of the gate in the Northeast? As much as we hate Dany Heatley today, we have the tendency to turn on our own heroes incredibly fast and will throw just about anyone to the wolves if given the airtime. Remember when half of Ottawa wanted to rescind Alfie’s key to the city?

I opine that if Heatley’s tiff really is with the system and coaching style in Ottawa, then Clouston had better be winning games early and often this fall. While I think his job security will last a while and I am confident that he is the right person for the job, there is an immense amount of pressure on him. Don’t be surprised if the post-game show pundits start screaming for Heaters to come back if he has a more successful start this fall then Clouston’s Senators. Fairness has never been a part of our MO in Ottawa. (photo from Ottawa Citizen)

Three Predictions for June

So the draft is officially a week away and will be the first signifacant thing the Sens will have done since trading for Pascal Leclaire in the first week of March. Given all the news surrounding the team with Heatley rumours, mock drafts, etc., I thought I'd offer up three predictions that I guarantee will happen before the draft is over. Ready?

1. Dany Heatley WILL be moved prior to our first round pick. Not much of a stretch, but I'm convinced that Murray will find a suitable deal the night before and will pull the trigger before the first round begins. Not necessarily a great deal, not highway robbery, but a suitable deal.

2. We will pick before the Leafs. Hear me now and believe me later, Bryan Murray loves to trade up in the draft. Whether it is swapping our 9th pick and a second rounder to move into the top 5, or merely jumping fewer spots ahead, Murray WILL make a trade and move up in the draft. Hell, maybe this is the move where Chris Kelly gets traded while holding someone's baby and laughing at Local Hero's Sens drafy party!

3. Chris Neil will re-sign. The writing is on the wall here, folks. Neil wants to stay, Murray needs his toughness and leadership around, and this deal will get signed in Montreal. I know some people think that the rumoured $1.7M per year is a bit steep, but that is probably below market price for a guy that can hang on the third line, skate well, and fight anyone in the league. He's also insanely passionate about his team and sticks up for his teammates. His offensive totals dipped last year, but that is par for the course for the Sens. He'll rebound back up to a 25-30 point player and keep Alfie and Spezza from getting run over.

Thoughts? Arguments?

cheek

Official Re-Launch?

Our first blog here in about a year and a half! Not really sure what we stopped and not really sure why we’re starting back up, but I’m hoping that this blog can fill a void in the dozens of Senators and hockey blogs out there today. There are some great ones, for sure. Whether it be Sens insider sites, postgame report sites, or just general observations on the team.

I’m hoping that this site can have daily posts about current Sens news and take a look at the lighter side of the team. Instead of trying to break actual rumours, we’ll instead provide an analysis on a rumour based on salary cap, statistics, projections, etc. Instead of writing post-game reports, we’ll try and highlight trends over the past few games, which players are performing, and which lines are clicking.

The first few posts are going to be obvious ones – the Dany Heatley saga, my opinion on the management shakeup with RAM, and a look at the upcoming UFA season that is less than three weeks away.

We’ll start out with no moderation on the comments so please feel free to comment as often as you’d like and hopefully we’ll have some good active discussion going.

In the meantime, here's at least one Senators star that loves living and playing in Ottawa.



Enjoy!

Geoff

Mid-November Report

5 weeks - time flies when you're having fun, eh? The Ottawa Senators are off to one of the best starts in NHL history and sit at 14-2 heading into the five day break in mid-November. Taking the idea that it is always best to go on a break on a winning note, the Sens took down division rival Montreal on Saturday before hosting the Sabres in Ottawa next Thursday.

It seems like a natural time to start to really evaluate the state of the team at this point of the fresh season. Enough games have been played for fans and management to get a better idea of how the lines will roll, which forwards are finding the twine, and which defenceman are ready to put bruises ahead of beauty. Here's a quick breakdown from the eyes of this beholder:

Forwards:
Let's be honest here - there are the first three guys and then there are the rest of them. Without a doubt, Daniel Alfredsson has been the best player on the team, and quite possibly the conference, showing that there might be some benefits of a short summer after all. Spezza, though out with a groin injury right now, and Heatley are continuing their love affair and put it on paper for the world to see with their 7- and 6-year contract extensions, respectively. Spezza hasn't found the back of the net as much, but he continues to feed it to that other guy that can, as Heatley continues to develop into one of the top two-way players in hockey.

As for the rest of the forwards, it has really been a case of the "different guy each night" cliché. One day it is Fisher, the next it is Vermette, then newcomer Randy Robitaille, and the list goes on. Secondary scoring was a question mark for a couple of reasons: one, because the Anaheim Ducks showed what can happen if the top line gets shut down, and two, because Bryan Murray said repeatedly that he wanted another top-six forward to balance out the lines. He is fully aware of the potential in the secondary forwards, but he's also fully aware that it is easy for them to lay back and rely on the pizza line to deliver the wins.

If Ottawa is to continue its torrid pace into the postseason, which is still months and months away, it will need Fisher, Vermette, and Eaves to chase that 20-goal plateau. Todd White once had 60 points centering Alfredsson in Ottawa - Fisher doesn't have the luxury of having the captain on his right, but he also gets to bypass the opponent's top defensive pairing so he needs to chase the 60-65 point mark this year to take the next step.

Defence:
Much like where the top pair left off, Phillips and Volchenkov continue their monstrous efforts on the blue line. Volchenkov took the early NHL shot block lead and will likely not give it up, and Phillips has the city completely forgetting that big guy that used to play for us a couple of years ago. Perhaps most refreshing, though, is the rebound performances of Meszaros and Redden to date. While they still won't lay one solid bodycheck and will continue to get hammered by forecheckers, the two of them have rediscovered their communication and poise and are far better at clearing pucks out from the paint. Both players are due for contracts next summer, one looking for a raise and the other looking for a paycut. Whatever offer Murray tenders to Redden will directly affect half of the third pairing. Perhaps the biggest loser of the summer, Joe Corvo had his +/- leading defensive partner, Tom Preissing, replaced by aging cold-cock afficionado, Luke Richardson. Richardson has definitely held his own back there, but paired with Corvo, these guys will see limited ice time all season long. If Corvo was looking to build off his solid postseason last year with more minutes and a more important role, he can think again. Truth be told, Happy Feet looks a bit lost back there and might be trying to overcompensate in the massive change in speed in his partner - Richo doesn't get up and down the pad quite as fast as Preissing could. If Redden signs, it is because Corvo is on his way out. Simple as that.

Goalies:
Who would have thought this would even be a topic a few months ago? Not me. Ironically, I supported Gerber indefinitely last year and was constantly ripped on by other media outlets and fans alike. Emery stole the job, saved our fall, and rode on the coattails of a possessed captain all the way to the Finals. Job secure, right? Wrong. A surgery recovery that dragged on has now cost Emery his icetime and possibly his job in Ottawa altogether. Rumours are abound that management is tired of his poor work ethic and debbie downer attitude around the room - there is talk of a deal to LA. Meanwhile, Gerber has made the necessary saves and is showing us all why he was given that $11M contract a couple of years ago. His rebounds are still out of control and he has been a true beneficiary of the defensive system in place in Ottawa, but that doesn't take away from his performance to open the season. He will make Emery earn every single minute he plays, and that is all you can ask of your supposed backup goalie. The only question is if Emery will push him back for the time, or just let him take the job.

Special Teams:
Really quick here - powerplay is trying to be too fancy. Get the puck down low to Spezza, let him find Alfredsson in the slot of Heatley on the goal mouth and end it. Our inability to score on every single 5-on-3 makes me sick. Penalty kill is lights out and leads the league in shorties, to boot.

All in all, I don't think Ottawa is playing its best hockey yet but they certainly look fantastic. Their passes are crisp and while it often goes unmentioned, their neutral zone play has been downright scary. Other teams' fans think that their boys aren't playing well against Ottawa when this is merely a testament to the Sens' ability to govern between the blue lines and exploit every single mistake made by the opponent. This group reminds me a lot of Detroit in 2003 - just a well-oiled machine who can only lose because of a lack of focus and effort. There isn't a more talented team in the Conference, and possibly the league. That being said, no trophies are handed out in mid-November. If the season ended this time last year, we'd finish in 12th place! Let's push the guys to maintain this focus and intensity for, what, another 8 months or so?

Senators July Report

Well, July has come and gone, so let's take a look at how new General Manager did in his first full month on the job.

Topics to be discussed:

1. The Ray Emery contract
2. The Wade Redden non-trade
3. The Peter Schaefer trade
4. The Oleg Saprykin non-offer
5. The coaching change

1. The Ray Emery Contract
Simply put, this is a necessary signing that gives the team the stability it needs. Had we run into talks of offer sheets or even walking away from arbitration awards, it is hard to say how Murray would have felt going into the season with Gerber. Ray Emery isn't flawless, but he's a young goalie that has now put a lot of experience under his belt in his two years. And keep in mind that playing a post-season in a hockey market like Ottawa provides far more lessons and experience than a post-season in Anaheim or Carolina or other less-interested cities. If Emery didn't crack in his first two seasons, I think it is safe to say that he truly can be the goaltender of the future for the Sens. Getting him under a contract that makes him the 3rd highest paid goalie in Ontario and 18th highest paid in the league is dreamy given that he took his team to the Finals. This also gives Murray the opportunity to move Gerber whenever he finds a taker. He said up until the signing that he wouldn't do anything with Gerber until Emery was under contract, strictly because of the fear of giving Ray too much leverage.

Now that the contract is done and he's here for three years, Murray will have his eye on the street and wait for a goalie to go down. It is beyond me, though, why we can't find a trading partner in LA or Phoenix, though I guess those teams just don't want a 32-year old that just came off a tough season and makes $3.7M. If Murray can't move him before October, I can't see him being a deadline move just to make sure we can have two competent goalies going into the playoffs. 8 weeks to move him now, or we keep him for a second season, in my opinion.

2. The Wade Redden non-trade
This is the big one, folks. I'm no mathmetician, but luckily it doesn't take a genius to figure out that Redden doesn't figure into the plans of the Senators after this season. On the ice, he was essentially relegated to #3 defenceman behind the shutdown pair of Phillips and Volchenkov. Off the ice, his money will be basically used up in its entirety on extending Heatley ($4.5M will likely become $7.5M), Spezza ($4.5M will become at least $6.5M), and Fisher ($1.5M will be at least $3M). Oh snap, those raises work out to exactly $6.5M! It puts Murray in a really tough situation because you can't move your highest paid player at the deadline going into the playoffs, but you hate to let him walk away for nothing next summer. In going public with having a trade in place for Redden last month at the draft, Murray reiterated where #6 stands on this team. In other words, we'd love to move him and get a scoring winger and a mid-level defenceman, much like what Philadelphia got in Lupul and Smith for Pitkanen. Can we assume that this is the same offer Murray was going to make with Redden?

I think in going public with the non-trade, Murray basically puts the spotlight on Redden both for the rest of the summer and into the season. I have to believe that Murray is still putting his name out there and will simply ask Redden AGAIN to waive the no-trade clause. If you're asked twice to leave, do you get the hint that you don't fit in? On the other hand, if you are Redden's agent, you are insisting that your client STAY in Ottawa at all costs. He is in a contract year and is playing in a high profile market on a guaranteed playoff team. Where else can you prove that you are worth $6.5M in next summer's market? As beneficial as it would be to us to move him out for two players back, I think he'll be back on the blue line in October. The silver lining in all of this is that there is no way that he can be as bad as last season.

3. The Peter Schaefer trade
This was my midsummer night's dream. I never liked Peter Schaefer so it is hard to look at this one objectively. I see the value in him as a penalty killer and I dont' think $2M for him in today's market is completely unreasonable. But he was such a lollygagger last year and he brings so little offence to the second line, that you are just better off giving the icetime to Vermette and finding a grinder to take Schaefer's spot on a third line. Or in Donovan's case, the fourth line. We saved a lot of money and instead of having a guy that is here for three more years, Murray has a guy that comes up for contract next year. The hidden gem there is that Murray has the money to sign his stars first and then can see if Donovan still fits into the plans. He never had that luxury with Schaefer, who was on the books and taking up much-needed cap space.

4. The Oleg Saprykin Deal
The story seems to be that Muckler qualified him before getting fired, and Murray basically asked Saprykin's agent to tell his client nto to sign it. It is great that this was so cordial and now Oleg is off to Europe and we have the $1M+ in money to spend elsewhere. Saprykin was solid in his play and was absolutely worth the second round pick just for that game winner he scored in Buffalo in Game One. That being said, it is tough to pay over a million dollars for a guy that is almost a lock to be on the fourth line. Better to have McAmmond at $900K, who can play on any line, can kill penalties, and can grind if needed (even if he's not that big). Good move on Murray to save the money - we'll need it next summer.

5. The coaching change
Not much to discuss here, except that Paddock was the right choice to take over. We can all look at Pat Burns, Pat Quinn, all those other big name guys, etc. But with Paddock, you get a guy that knows the players and knows the system we play. As a team that just played in the Finals, we don't need to be changing our style and learning a new system. We just need to tweak it a bit, add some Murray-type players that have more size and sandpaper (see Donavan for Schaefer), and we'll be fine. Murray is still in the picture and if he wants John Paddock to coach this team, I think he has earned our trust.

All in all, a pretty breezy summer for Murray. His challenge now is to get straight into extension talks with Heatley, Spezza, and Fisher. If there is one thing we've learned from Buffalo's experience this year, it is that when a player says that they want to talk, we listen. Stories are abound that Drury would have signed at $5M a year last summer but the Sabres didn't want to talk until now. Oops. I hope Murray at least opens the dialogue with all three and we get an idea of their desired number. If we can extend them before June 2008, then that whole "the window is closing" pressure disappears and we can just play. What are your thoughts on the Sens summer thus far?

rd 4 gm 4; anaheim @ ottawa; 6.4.07

That’s what happens when you take your boot off their throat.

The Balance in the Bank:

Final Score: Anaheim wins 3-2 (Anaheim leads series 3-1)
Ottawa Goals: Alfredsson, Heatley
Making Sens: Volchenkov, Phillips, Fisher
Lacking Sens: Redden. Heatley, Meszaros, more
It was over when: The first few minutes of the second period. It was clear our edge was gone and we handed them the keys to take back the game. They did.
It was definitely over when: McDonald’s second goal (in one minute) gave them the lead, silenced the crowd, and forced our boys back into their timid style they’ve played all series.
Message in a Molson bottle: It pains me to no end that we can come out flying in the first period, take the lead, and then just walk away for the final 40 minutes. Sure, we had some pressure and a game-tying goal late in the second period, but we are a scared team. Our top players are terribly intimidated by their team, and it rubs off on the rest of the boys. We’ve become so hands-off (with notable exceptions like Fisher) and basically wear our fear on our sleeves. The result, against a dominant team like Anaheim, is this shitestorm we allowed over the final two periods, and our first elimination game of the playoffs.

Grab a Timmy’s double double and listen to what really happened:

Optimistic Ophelia
Mike Fisher’s status as an underrated player in the league is over – everyone notices him now. He has been the absolute heart and soul of Ottawa over the course of the fourth round, partly because he plays such an inspired game and partly because our old stars are out of their element this round. Mike Fisher represents everything you need to be a champion – skill, speed, tenacity, and a city’s worth of heart. How his teammates can watch a shift of his and then not respond the same way is frightening. The most painful thing about this 3-1 deficit right now is that Mike Fisher deserves better and nobody is helping bring that fate.

Pessimistic Patty
I don’t care who scored our goals tonight, our top players are soft. We don’t have a top line crusher, like a Rod Brind’Amour, and we don’t have a game-changing blue liner like a Scott Stevens. In this particular series at this particular time, it is unraveling our team in front of the world. We were one of the most physical teams in the Eastern Conference. Apparently, the Western Conference is far tougher because besides just a few guys, our entire team looks terrified and rattled each and every shift. Dany Heatley was supposed to be the North American difference maker, the anti-Hossa, but you can’t really tell a difference right now, can you? Even Alfredsson and his ass-first hits on the dump-in are gone. Why do we choose to stick-check the hell out of everything instead of using our body? Why, when approaching an oncoming winger, do we take an angle alongside the guy so we can poke it away instead of taking the angle to knock his head off? We look physically pathetic and it isn’t because we’re smaller, its because we don’t want to play that style. Guess what, boys, it’s too late. Anaheim wrote the prologue at home in the first two games and you have NOT answered the bell. Frigging stick-checking everything.

Upbeat Urusla
Have I talked about Mike Fisher yet? Other than that, I can’t take a positive out of this game yet. Perhaps emotions are still boiling over at having crapped the bed in a game where they missed their top player and their lower-tiered defencemen looked completely awful. Perhaps we really did play that timidly over the last 40 minutes that there is nothing to be happy about. Hey, did Heatley get his first point of the series? Great. We lost. What have you done for me lately, Eddie?

Debbie Downer
I don’t want to sound like a Debbie Downer here, but it is going to take all of our might as fans to analyze how we can come back in this series. Even last year when we were down 3-0 to Buffalo, we could conceivably put a plan together to win the series. Down 3-1 now, I really don’t think we’re a couple of line changes from winning. While all three losses have been in one-goal games, they’ve been in games where we just rolled over and played dead. For God’s Sake, the biggest game in franchise history and Wade Redden plays like a total pansy. How the balls are we going to regroup and beat these guys three times when Redden is our man and some buffoon named Meszaros skates beside him? Don’t get me wrong, I’ll try and figure out a way of how we’ll come back and win this on the road in seven, but the way we’ve played through four games, we’re somewhat lucky we got a fifth game out of it, in my opinion. Am I overreacting to the loss? Speak to me.

Keys to next game
Hit their heads off, for crying out loud
Traffic in front of Giguere
Leave it on the ice and have no less than a dozen cuts and bruises. You don’t know when you’ll be back here.