Top 5 UFA Forward targets for Ottawa

Editor's Note: Okay, so this is pure recycling on my part. I posted these UFA target pieces a week ago and wanted to get them back up on the main page heading into tomorrow's UFA Frenzy. Enjoy.

Even though the draft comes before the UFA period, there seems to be plenty of coverage on the players we might take at the #9 spot for me to try and rehash some of it here. I also am convinced that we’re going to trade up in the draft, anyway, so perhaps we swap that #9 pick for something higher and we pick a player that none of us are expecting to be on the board as it stands.

That being said, I want to look at five potential UFA targets for both the forward and defence positions come July 1st. This first of two installments will look at the forwards. Please note that I haven’t bothered to put guys like Hossa, Sundin, and the Sedin sisters because we can’t really afford them. These five players all fit the top 6 forward billing that Murray has publicly sought and can potentially be signed for a salary that fits our payroll post-Heatley. Let me also say that I’m strongly for keeping Mike Comrie at somewhere in that $2M - $2.5M as a playmaking winger on the second line. With a healthy hip and a renewed season in a strong program, Comrie will come back strong.


1. Mike Cammalleri (last year: CGY, 39g, 43a, 82pts, -2, $3.35M cap)

A healthy Mike Cammalleri is an 80-point player. In the last three seasons, he’s accomplished the feat twice, once in LA and again last year in Calgary. In Ottawa, he would be the first ever ‘second line centre’ that we’ve only heard about in campfire stories. Sure, you could try and bump him to the wing with Spezza, but I think he’d be better suited on a second line with a Mike Fisher type. He has proven that he can handle the heat of playing in a hockey-crazed city, as well, and at 28 years old, he’s got a way to go. The burning question is about his salary demands. We already have a $4.2M second liner in Fisher, so can we really afford a $5M second line centre? In my opinion, he lets you have two legitimate lines that are a threat to score and you really just need to fill the top line with a kid that can keep up with Spezza and Alfredsson.

2. Brian Gionta (last year: NJ, 20g, 40a, 60pts, +12, $4M cap)

This is one that might sneak in under the radar for us. Gionta doesn’t put up Cammy numbers and isn’t a full blown replacement for Heatley, but he’s a guy that has the potential for 70+ pts and is most certainly fast enough to keep up with Spezza. He has the hands for it, too, but he’d have to play on the top line to be worth the salary for $5M that it is going to take to get him. He also turned 30 this year, two years older than Cammalleri. A natural winger, he’d be the forechecker that Heatley wasn’t and while he doesn’t have the same shot as his predecessor, he has far better speed and vision and could fit in better with Clouston’s pressure system. Again, though, we’d be looking at $5M for this one.

3. Alex Tanguay (last year: MTL, 16g, 25a, 41pts (50 games), +13, $5.25M cap)

Here’s another winger that can put up points and he’s been doing it for longer than both of the first two. He’ll also cost that same $5M and doesn’t necessarily have the speed to guarantee him a spot on the top line. Another positive with Tanguay is that he’s a very reliable two-way player that knows his way around his own end and isn’t a liability out there. The one question mark is that his career has been just as much about playmaking as it has been about burying pucks. That’s all good and well, but that doesn’t mesh great with Spezza, who is already one of the top setup men in the entire league. Instead, he might have to play on the second line and that begs the question of who will finish the plays there. Tanguay is a player, no doubt, but he’ll need to score more to really fit our needs. Turning 30 this fall might tell us, though, that what you see is what you get with Alex.

4. Maxim Afinogenov (last year: 6g, 14a, 20pts (48 games), -7, $3.33M cap hit)

Finally, a controversial pick! Afino fell out of favour with the fans in Buffalo a few years ago and hung around simply because nobody wanted to trade for him. There were times when he was rumoured to be headed to waivers just so the Sabres could move on. One thing that can’t be denied, though, is the Afinogenov possesses great hands and great speed. What he seems to lack, though, is heart and desire. Is this because he had to live in the armpit of America for years and was just waiting to get out of Buffalo, just like most of his other teammates? Or does this guy just suit the old stereotype of being a European disinterested in the North American game? The bright side here is that his salary is about to get cut significantly, probably down to $2M or less. Given the talent that is buried in this guy’s psyche, that might be worth a flyer to see if he thrives in a new environment where he is counted on for secondary scoring, not primary scoring. His life on the top line is over, but he’d be a steal as a second liner with 50 point potential. High risk, high reward. Turning 30 this year, Afinogenov has a ton to prove on this next contract.

5. Mike Knuble (last year: 27g, 20a, 47pts, +5, $2.8M cap hit)

Okay, so I’ll admit that the talent and upside has dropped off significantly from the first few guys like Cammalleri and Gionta down to Knuble. But Mike Knuble, who is hitting 37 years old this summer, is your dreamy underrated second liner. He has been averaging a better than decent 54 points over the past 6 years and probably has 2-3 good years left. The only way that we really have a need for Knuble, though, is if we determine that we’re ready to contend within the next few years. If the return from the Heatley trade doesn’t give us roster players and if Leclaire isn’t a top ten goalie, then Knuble is wasted money for us. If we can write off last season as an anomaly and Clouston gets us back into the upper half of the Conference, then Knuble is a great fit for $3M or less. Our hope should be that we see how the first day of the UFA period goes to see where we fit in the conference, then determine if Knuble is a fit.

Left off the list:
Martin Havlat – too much money and he’s as injury prone as ever. Sure, you can drop $6M on a scoring winger that knows the city, but the kid doesn’t play a full season.
Erik Cole – again with the injuries, eh? This guy has shown that he only does well playing as a smaller Cam Neely in Raleigh. Not worth the $4M that he’ll get.

Anyone else at forward that we can get? Let me know.

What if Dany Heatley is still an Ottawa Senator at training camp? UPDATED

(Update: Monday, June 22, 4:20pm) - Bryan Murray has said that if he can't move Heatley at the draft and we end up having to pay that $4M bonus in a week and a half on July 1st, he might just keep the guy. So either he's posturing and telling teams to make their absolute best offer by Friday night, or he is really serious about just hanging on to Heatley to see if this can be turned around. Click here for the full story on Sportsnet's site

Original piece:
I like to preface some of these pieces with a quick aside – in this case, I stand by my prediction that Heaters is moved on the draft floor in Montreal on Friday night. But knowing the stubbornness of Bryan Murray, coupled with the history of the Senators franchise to play hardball with its players, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that we enter training camp with Heatley on the roster. What would this mean for the team? Let’s consider what this means for Heatley, what this means for Clouston, and what this means for the rest of the lineup.

At some point in the next little while, Bryan Murray will undoubtedly approach #15 with a small handful of teams that have presented suitable offers for the troubled winger. If Heatley refuses to budge on his list of preferred destinations and Murray gets tough (as he promised us he would), then Dany Heatley will officially become the 800lb gorilla sauntering back in to the Sens locker room in September. Local heroes Mike Fisher and Chris Neil have already gone public in questioning their teammate, so you can safely assume that he’s lost his popularity points among the rest of the team, as well. If he truly is a good team player like some have suggested, he’d be well-served by going into that dressing room with a heartfelt apology, a lengthy explanation, and a commitment to play as hard as possible for his teammates. Rather than avoid the awkwardness, Heatley will need to step up to the podium and deal with this immediately off the ice. As for on the ice, there is nothing here that says he won’t get back to his 90-100 point levels. Even if his teammates rightfully think of him as a total assbag for wanting to walk out, they still have a common goal of winning a Cup. Exhibit A is Alexei Yashin’s performance after his one-year hiatus/suspension/holdout in Russia – 82 games, 40 goals, 48 assists for 88 points, the second highest total in his career. These players are grown ups and when they step on the ice, they perform at top levels. This isn’t the California Penal League, Vaughn, they’re professionals here. They don’t tank plays for personal reasons, so cut the crybaby shat! My point is that Heatley’s biggest challenge coming back to Ottawa will be off the ice and patching up the relationships that he had his agents destroy for him.

What about poor Cory Clouston? The guy hasn’t had a sound byte since his highest paid player threw him under the bus. How does Clouston handle Dany Heatley in the fall? Again, I’m all about communication and confronting that obese ape before it turns into more of a circus than it already is. They’re both men and they need to find some common ground, but with the understanding that Clouston isn’t going to back down from his expectations. If he wants Heatley to play an aggressive forechecking game like the rest of the team, then he needs to stand by that demand. Good coaches find ways to get the most out of each player, knowing that it takes different tactics for different personalities. Find what works as soon as possible and remain tough. If splitting up Heatley and his on-again/off-again boyfriend is what it takes to get the team playing right, then do it. Just be careful that you don’t jeopardize the well-being of this team just to try and make a point to Heatley. The dicey part here is that Heatley is the goal scorer on this team, so you have to find a way to get his performance to suit your team system but without sacrificing his natural ability to put the biscuit in the basket. Coach, you have your work cut out for you. Fair or not, the challenge on you to succeed with this situation is far greater than it is for the guy that put you in this mess to begin with.

And what about the rest of the team? I’ve already said that the onus is on Heatley to step up and make amends with his teammates, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they need to accept those terms. That being said, we’re all better off if they can see this as water under the bridge. Frankly, I don’t know how you can do that, but hopefully his standing in the dressing room is such that he can get back to joking around with his teammates and perhaps even lighten up a bit in the community. Instead of taking Don Brennan’s columns to heart, maybe he can start laughing it off like Spezza has been able to do. Like I said earlier, though, the real challenge here is assimilation back into the dressing room. On the ice, professionalism overcomes personal feelings and they’ll all be fine together. They aren’t going to avoid Heatley when he has his stick teed up in the far circle, are they? They want to win and Heatley helps make that happen. Hopefully, a non-trade serves as a humbling experience for Dany and he realizes he has to clean up his act.

The safe move remains to trade him as soon as possible and let the boys know that they can move on with new teammates that WANT to be in Ottawa. Nobody liked it when Yashin came back in 2000-01, even if they gladly suited up alongside him on the ice. The guy will get booed on home ice, as Yashin did, and will get torn up in the media. Perhaps if Heatley does still suit up for Ottawa this fall, we’re all better off if he can light the lamp as much as possible and get his trade value up to a point where someone can pull the trigger that they’re scared to do this month. Suffice it to say that even if Heatley DOES end up starting the year in Ottawa, he certainly won’t end it here.

Three Predictions for June

So the draft is officially a week away and will be the first signifacant thing the Sens will have done since trading for Pascal Leclaire in the first week of March. Given all the news surrounding the team with Heatley rumours, mock drafts, etc., I thought I'd offer up three predictions that I guarantee will happen before the draft is over. Ready?

1. Dany Heatley WILL be moved prior to our first round pick. Not much of a stretch, but I'm convinced that Murray will find a suitable deal the night before and will pull the trigger before the first round begins. Not necessarily a great deal, not highway robbery, but a suitable deal.

2. We will pick before the Leafs. Hear me now and believe me later, Bryan Murray loves to trade up in the draft. Whether it is swapping our 9th pick and a second rounder to move into the top 5, or merely jumping fewer spots ahead, Murray WILL make a trade and move up in the draft. Hell, maybe this is the move where Chris Kelly gets traded while holding someone's baby and laughing at Local Hero's Sens drafy party!

3. Chris Neil will re-sign. The writing is on the wall here, folks. Neil wants to stay, Murray needs his toughness and leadership around, and this deal will get signed in Montreal. I know some people think that the rumoured $1.7M per year is a bit steep, but that is probably below market price for a guy that can hang on the third line, skate well, and fight anyone in the league. He's also insanely passionate about his team and sticks up for his teammates. His offensive totals dipped last year, but that is par for the course for the Sens. He'll rebound back up to a 25-30 point player and keep Alfie and Spezza from getting run over.

Thoughts? Arguments?

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