Have you forgiven Dany Heatley yet?

Training camp opens in less than a month. The first pre-season game is 33 days away, opening night just a few weeks after that. Kids are headed back to school, families make final summer plans at the cottage, and Dany Heatley braces himself for his inevitable return to the Ottawa Senators.

I've come a long way with this, to be honest. I've followed the Ian Mendes road to recovery and even though Heatley is still on our team, I'm coming to grips with this once unthinkable reality. I wrote here earlier this summer that there was no chance in hell that Heatley and Murray wouldn't come together and find a way to ship this guy to any of the 29 other teams. I thought either Murray would take a lesser offer or Heatley would suck up the deal to Edmonchuk.

Wrong on all accounts! In case you haven't noticed, I have an AWFUL track record with predictions and guarantees. I say we make the playoffs and we'll miss them. I say the we draft a forward and Murray picks a defenceman (although there is no chance he would have passed on Cowen at that spot regardless). And I guaranteed that Heatley would be moved and I stand here today to correct myself. Face it, guys, Dany Heatley is coming to town. He's suiting up alongside his normal on-again, off-again interest and he'll spot somewhere between 40-50 goals this season.

We should have seen this coming, to be honest. First, the publicity of the trade request is something that should never be underestimated. This turned the negotiations into a circus and made Heatley into the disloyal character he's seen as today. Second, the draft came and went without movement. This was an ideal opportunity to close the door and the offers just weren't there. And then the Edmonton fiasco on and around Canada Day/free agency. The writing has been on the wall since midnight struck on July 1st - nobody is going to give us anything close to equal value for this player. In the eyes of the other GMs, why offer talent for talent when you know Murray has to move him? If you're Murray, why get taken to task when you'd be just as happy to deal with the bad press and have a 50-goal scorer in the lineup? Long story short, the dude is coming back to the Sens.

So tonight, I try and take another step toward the reality of having this guy back on our team. The comments box a few weeks ago asked about what it would take for you to welcome #15 back. Responses ranged from a hat trick to a 7-figure donation to charity and everything in between. For me, I'm at a point where I'd just be satisfied with him saying that he has changed his mind and is ready to play as hard as he can to help Ottawa get back to the playoffs. Seriously, I think that's all I need. Just tell us you had a long time to think this summer and you've gotten over whatever it was your agent told you was bothering you, and now you're ready to play with your teammates.

Heatley's return will mean a few things for other players, too. First, Gator will either be placed on LTIR or quietly advised to retire and take a consulting position. Even if Smith begs Murray to move him to another team to play another year, nobody wants him at $2.6M. Putting him on re-entry waivers kinda screws us, too, because we'll have $1.3M on our books for half his salary. Gator is done when Heatley returns. Schubert is on the bubble, too. Mike Comrie won't get an offer from us, either. We'll have to fill holes with younger guys like Winchester again instead of having received players like Penner and Cogliano (and having the cap space to add Comrie, too...).

Like it or not, our cap situation stays the same, we don't get much scoring depth after AK27, and we have to cut a warrior. And most important, Dany Heatley will pull on his Sens sweater for another year. In fact, who is to say that the trade request doesn't fall from our minds by Thanksgiving and the guy plays out the rest of his contract?

Question for you, Joe Sensfan - have you forgiven Dany Heatley yet? If not, you'd better put down some chicken soup and have a heart to heart with yourself on how you're going to react on opening night when he's in our starting lineup.

Spezza is going camping!

Spez will be going to at least one camp with his ex-bf this year. It was just announced that Spezza has (finally) been invited to the Olympic Camp to replace Getzlaf, who went under the knife this summer.

This is a well deserved invite for the newly married man and should give him more incentive to impress on the ice this year. Congrats Spez!!

On the flip side, B's fans continue to stew as ex-Metcalf Jet Marc Savard remains off the list.

3 Reasons why a Heatley trade IS close

Okay, so last week we discussed to some extent the Heatley trade rumours and Brennan's source that thought the trade would be done by last weekend. We said that the Elliot contract didn't tell us that Heatley's contract was coming off the books, that the three-way team carried very little logic as it relates to cap space, and because Murray wouldn't budge for anything less than what Edmonton was offering.

Now, let's try and consider the other side of the puck, why Heatley WILL be traded before camp next month.

1. He's a major distraction

I'll preface by saying I'm a strong believer in a tight-knit locker room, players getting along together, hanging out off the ice, etc. I know some think that it is irrelevant because all that matters is what they do on the ice, but you fight harder for teammates when you have that trust in one another. Right now, everyone is saying that they'd welcome Heatley back with open arms, but does anyone really think that Heatley has the courage to earn the trust back of his teammates?

On one hand, the players clearly know why Heatley has asked for a trade. They're going to be keeping that from the Garriochs and the rest of the media, but they know. On the other hand, Heatley still has turned his back on this team. He hasn't given one shred of evidence that he wants to rejoin this team, bury whatever hatchet is out there, and focus on the upcoming season. It is going to take a lot of charity work for him to earn the respect of the fans, but it is going to take far more than that to earn the trust of his teammates. For that reason alone, Murray will move him out of the dressing room and bring in guys that have a clean slate. This season is too important to Murray's career to let this distraction hang over the start.

2. Can a brother get some cap space?

I don't fault Murray for signing Spezza and Heatley to long-term contracts. It is very hard to just pack up and choose one of the two when they're up for extensions. Alfie is a lifer, so it was either choosing one or the other of the boyfriends, or cornering ourselves with a top heavy salary structure like what we have now. Obviously, Murray doesn't want to move either of the boyfriends because he thinks he can plug in the role players for under a million instead of balancing out salaries throughout the top three lines. But it doesn't work! Tampa proved that a few years ago, we proved that last year, and in time, Detroit will show that, as well. You can have a couple of guys paid as elite players, but you have to spread it out across positions. I like Calgary with Kipper, Phaneuf, Regehr, and Iggy as the four highest paid players. In Ottawa, we have our four highest paid players all at forward. It doesn't allow for much depth in the third and fourth lines and it leaves us in a terrible spot on defence and in nets.

While we don't like the circumstances that brought us here, Murray now has a golden opportunity to fix our salary structure. Go and make Spezza the highest paid players and then crank out a few guys in the $2-4M range. With Heatley and Spezza and Alfie together, we'll never have a chance to carry an elite defenceman or an elite goalie. We can't afford it! So while the trade request stinks, this is a blessing in disguise and a seasoned manager like Bryan Murray knows this. There has to be some feeling of relief for him that he can tidy up the payroll and blame it on a player at the same time.

3. Heatley still has value

Sure, we're furious at the guy and his agents for how this whole saga has been handled. For nearly two months, we've called Heatley every name in the book and questioned everything from his heart and courage to his social life to his commitment to Canadian hockey. Even other GMs like Burkie and David Poile have done us the favour of criticizing Heatley publicly. But at the end of the day, he's still one of the most prolific goal scorers in the decade, has put up 50 in a season twice since the lockout, and is a lock as a Canadian Olympian. Add to the list that he's signed long-term and is 28-years old and you have an elite player available to the highest bidder. And by highest bidder, I mean anyone that has cap space and offers three decent roster players. Teams like Dallas, Minnesota, San Jose, NY Rangers, and others could all use a player like this.

The fact that a trade hasn't been made isn't because there is no interest, it is because they're all waiting for Murray to drop the price as camp approaches. We've said all along that this is a multi-layered game of chicken involving Murray, Heatley, his agents, and any other GM that has a need for the Heat. As camp approaches, Murray as the stubbon and curmudgeonly old Shawville boy that he is, will just sit in his office and wait for the phone to ring. While he says he's fine having Heatley in camp, he knows that there are a small handful teams that will up their offers as September comes around. Oh yes, folks, the offers will come around. A 50-goal scorer is up for grabs and so long as Murray holds his standard, he knows that he's got an asset who will have his demand rise a bit everyday from now until teams step on the ice in mid-September.

Okay, that's it. Any thoughts? I know there are some of you commenters out there that think Heatley will be on this team through the trade deadline. But there are three strong reasons listed here that tell us that Heatley has a great chance of pulling on another sweater in September. Thoughts?

Is Pascale in Le-Clear?

While the summer months are normally slow with hockey talk, we typically find ourselves digging deep to discuss anything and everything worth an ounce of interest - but not this year. Our once beloved 50 goal man has managed to give us a real scoop! A huge news story with buckets of speculation. It's made us confused, angry, potentially violent, but overall very interested. So, we talk and talk and talk about it. Then we have lunch. Then we talk about it some more.

And so, as we head into another weekend with #15 on our roster, I'm desperate to change the focus a tad.

While Dominant Dany has dominated our chatter, there's another news story that has flown under our radar. Mind you, this is a story of significantly less drama and intrigue. On second thought, it might not even be a story, but consider this...

Much like our recent coaching history, we have had bad luck, or just poor talent, between the pipes. No this is not a story or anything close to news. Hasek was pushing, what, 50? Gerber was Gerber. Emery was sleeping in. Auld was, and will always be, a back up. Elliot, bless him, was (is) young and unproven. Year after year, we end up disappointed with one goalie or another. And much like recent years, we welcome a freshly painted mask to man our net. Welcome Pascale Leclaire.

Given the above mentioned recent history, you'd expect us to put a lot of focus on Leclaire. Not only is he our new tender, but he comes in with a not-so-proven past. Shaky, injury prone and, well, not handsome - Pascale poses a lot of question marks. And while these concerns were being discussed upon his signing, they were quickly overshadowed by the saga to end the decade.

So let's talk about it.

Personally, I like this signing. I have faith in Leclaire. He's a first round draft pick, he had early success on an awful team, and he's still young. I believe he can solve our perennial goalie woes. That said, and I've said this over and over again, Leclaire will be the backbone to our success. If he's as good as I hope he is, he will propel us into spring hockey. But on the flip side, we will be hard done by without a reliable tender.

This should be a lot of pressure! But, thanks to Heatley, nobody's talking about this. And the longer the saga sags on, nobody will be talking about it. And this, my friends, I think is a good thing. To be honest, I don't know enough about Leclaire to know how he handles pressure. But in any case, being out of the spotlight in a new town with new fans who will be demanding success is likely ok for any goalie. And while the hot lights will no doubt shed some focus on Leclaire at the beginning of the season, it will not be the intense pressure as it could have, or should have been.

So, we can thank Heatley for two things at the moment: 1) He's given us loads to talk about, and 2) He's taken some pressure off our new goalie who lacks any enduring success in the show.

How's that for a change of subject? What do you think? Is the saga a good thing for Leclaire? Does it take any pressure off him? Or have I just rambled on for no good reason on a quiet Friday night?

3 Reasons why a Heatley trade isn't close

Don't worry, Biff, I'll come back next and give three reasons why Heatley WILL be traded before camp, but I thought I'd start with the less popular side of the saga. By the way, have we overused the word saga? Our friends over at the 6th Sens highlighted how we kept referring to Kovalev as an enigma, and now Heatley can be just referred to as the saga.

But back to our list. First off, this list is more in response to the intense rumour-mongering going on this week about inevitable trade of Dany Heatley.

1. San Jose and a three-way?

Forget it. First off, it doesn't take a capologist to know that Ottawa and San Jose are not likely to partner up on their own. Teams have until camp to get under the cap, but with SJ and Ottawa being at or over the cap, their next move will be to move salary out. So these teams won't work out a trade on their own without some assurances that both teams will fix their cap problems in the same breath.

So enter the three-way trade talk, right? The hot topic is Montreal, for some reason. Montreal doesn't have a single roster player of interest to Ottawa (or at least it had better not) and while the Euge has inquired about adopting PK Subban as his own son, he doesn't crack this year's lineup. So the only way Montreal would be involved would be to provide cap space to us and/or San Jose. Check that: the ONLY way Montreal is involved is to take cap space FROM San Jose so that the Sharks can absorb the Heatley salary. This also assumes that our return from SJ is a pair of roster players (and prospects or picks) that help us save $2M or more in cap space.

There's always the possibility of the third team in this deal being someone other than Montreal, but if the mighty Garrioch hasn't uncovered it, then it doesn't exist, says I. So to repeat from earlier, either Montreal is only helping with salary dumps, or the mystery third team is not the Habs. Does this sound ridiculous yet? That's because it IS ridiculous.

2. The Brian Elliot signing

Everyone was convinced that Murray was holding off on signing Elliot because he wanted to know his cap position after a Heatley trade. So with Elliot signed (last night), it must mean that he knows that Heatley is on the move and how much salary is coming back. Is that the concept? Hogwash! The minute that Alex Auld was traded to Dallas, the Brian Elliot signing became completely independent of the Heatley saga. Think about it - Elliot is our backup goalie and was going to be signed one way or another. The actual salary was probably well known in June. I don't really know why it took until now to actually get the ink on paper, but thinking that the signing is an omen for a Heatley trade is wishful thinking for those that are sick of this guy being a Senator.

3. The Edmonton standard

Whether you agree with it or not, Murray will not take a lower return than what he was getting from Edmonton. That was a fat forward, a young speedster, and a third pairing defenceman. Okay, when I put it like that, it doesn't sound as good. But seriously, he expected to get two top nine forwards (both with potential to be top six) and a defensive prospect. While we might think that since the Oilers offer is gone that Murray has to settle for a lower return (I thought that might be the case), we should know better of this stubborn old man from Shawville. From what we've seen of the GM, it is clear that he would rather just bring Heatley back in the Fall and purge Gator and Schubert before he'll get fleeced in a trade. So unless Doug Wilson the tire-kicker (or some other GM) spots us three cheap roster players, count on the saga dressing in Ottawa this season.


There you have it - the three-way trade doesn't add up cap-wise, the Elliot signing was inconsequential, and Murray is holding all new deals to the non-existent Oilers offer.

Monday Musings - August 3rd

1. So the Ottawa/San Jose/Montreal three way has gone mainstream, eh? Quote from Garrioch's source: ''If the Sharks don't have what the Senators want, then (GM) Doug Wilson might have to go get it from another team,'' a league executive told Sun Media on Saturday. ''The Senators want a proven scoring winger in return and that means you might have to get a third team involved.''. Au contraire, Booboo and source, San Jose does have what we want in guys like Michalek, Pavelski et. al. What they don't have is cap space. Moreover, can you tell me who the hell the scoring winger in Montreal is that we'd covet? They have three guys that can allegedly put the puck in the net and they were all signed a month ago. I'm not saying they won't trade any of those three, but...okay, yes, that is exactly what I'm saying. I believe Plekanec is their next potent scorer and he and his turtleneck can underachieve in la belle province for many more years to come. I'm not doubting the three-way rumours, but either Montreal is providing nothing more than cap space to SJ, or Montreal isn't the third team.

2. The Euge has been quiet lately. Is he stewing in Barbados and burning a hole through his bank statement that shows the $4M expense, or is he over this? The man has a few other business ventures going, for sure, but it is still surprising he hasn't dropped a nugget for Brennan in a while.

3. One more note on the Heatley trade, because there isn't much else cooking this week. Does anybody else think that Heatley is still coming to camp? Granted I think most rumours are nothing more than rumblings since Murray has always managed to keep things so quiet. I've gotta think that the calm before the storm (as far as comments and sound bytes out of Ottawa are concerned) might tell us that something is brewing, and it is something quite different than we've considered. Perhaps it is still something different like Minnesota or Dallas, or as hockeybuzz says, the Rags. And if you ever wondered where hockeybuzz got its Sens rumours, look no further for the source. Final thought - I still say there is no chance that Heatley puts on a Sens sweater six weeks from now.