First Round Breakdown

Thinking of vintage Tragically Hip with Smalltown Bringdown when I wrote that post title...

Anyway, it isn't news to any of you that my predictions have the tendency to be completely wrong. I don't think I'm a hockey imbecile and actually feel comfortable with my knowledge of the game and our team. That being said, I've misunderstood the moves of our GM as he has put together a decent team right before our eyes. So it is with confusion, fear, uncertainty, and many other emotions that I give my breakdown of the Sens series versus the Penguins in some of the key areas.

1. Star Power
There is no questioning the talent of Crosby and Malkin - they are two of the most elite players in the world. On any given night, either of them can ruin your game. Case in point is the December 23rd loss to the Pens this year when Malkin potted three on Pascal. But if you put these guys toe-to-toe against our two stars, can they match up? Over the past two seasons, Alfie and Spezza combined to put up 5 goals and 9 assists for 14 points in the 8 games (Spezza missed one against Pitt this year). Crosby and Malkin put up 8 goals and 8 assists for 16 points. I hate to say something outrageous, but if we're able to get Phillips and Volchenkov on the ice against the Kid, can you make the argument that our two stars CAN hang with their top two stars? I'm not talking talent here, I'm just talking about their success against a specific opponent, in this case being each other.

2. Forward Depth
I'll spare the sugar coating - we have more depth. Staal and Guerin each had 20+ goals? So did Fisher and Michalek. Foligno has had great success against the Penguins in the past, Regin is playing well on the top line, and Matt Cullen has come on as of late plus had a great Cup run in 2006. Chris Kelly, as bad as I find his hands, has also done well against the Penguins. Listen, I'm well aware of the resumes on the other side of the ice from those guys. But pardon me if I think our secondary scoring has a better chance of burying some big goals.

3. Defensive Depth
We all know what Gonchar brings to this series - a strong powerplay quarterback, a rich man's Kuba with the ability to score some key points. Letang and Orpik are also solid blueliners. I'm not terribly worried about Leopold or Eaton, and Goligoski is a better version of Campoli. My big question mark on our side is how Carkner and Campoli will do on the road, knowing that Bylsma is going to feed them a steady dose of Crosby or Malkin. Like I said in the last post, Murray had a way of hiding Corvo and Preissing three years ago and while Carkner is a better defensive player than either of those guys, we still need to be careful here. All this being said, I don't think either team has a distinct advantage on the blue line, unless we're really able to put Phillips/Volchenkov on the ice every time Crosby gets out there. Home games will obviously be great to watch for that reason.

4. Special Teams
Ready to have your mind blown? Our powerplay finished at a nice 22nd ranking in the league, clicking at 16.9%. This is the third worst of all playoff teams (thank you, Boston and Phoenix). But the shocker here is that the Penguins are only 19th in the league and only convert at a 17.2%. That caught me off guard. We're 8th in PK at 84.3% while they are right behind us in 9th at 84.1%. You heard it here - we're basically even on special teams.

5. Goaltending
If you can accept that star power isn't a massive edge for the Penguins and you went on to read about the forward depth, defensive depth, and special teams, then you might think we have a great chance in this series. If you still don't think we should hold our breath, then you'll probably point to goaltending. Fleury has 48 playoff games and a Cup ring, Elliott has an NCAA Championship and some great memories of playing street hockey. Seriously, though, our guy had better numbers in the regular season but he hopefully understands that he's entering an all new world here. He seems cool, calm, and collected and these traits will be tested if we walk out of the Burgh down 0-2. Goaltending, to me, is the wild card here because we just don't know what we'll get with Elliott. Will he make the required saves and be slightly above average like Emery was in 2007? Will he stand on his head and win us a series? Will he collapse before our eyes? Everything we know about him is that he's not flashy, not into grabbing attention, and makes some good, timely saves. If Elliott can avoid the 'big period' just like a pitcher avoids the big inning, we can make it through this. Fleury will stand on his head just because he's done it before.

Okay, looking in the face of jinxing our boys, I will say that I really can see us moving on to the second round. Since I'm insanely superstitious and I've already pointed out how bad my predictions are, I'll stop short of saying something crazy like Sens in 6. All I will do is say I think they have a good chance and imply how things might work out for the good guys.

In the meantime, GO SENS GO! Get off to a nice start in Steeltown and remind everyone that Alex Ponikarovsky is useless .

5 Reasons Why the Ottawa Senators Made The Playoffs

This is pretty tongue-in-cheek and very much foot-in-mouth. I stand here proudly declaring that I was way off, Samsonite off, when I said the Sens would miss the postseason. On January 11th, mired in a long slump and showing no signs of life, I declared the postseason games to be out of the question on this blog. The good news is I'm wrong and I can admit it.

So let's attack my own work, shall we?

Reason #1: The remaining schedule is tougher than the first half.
We truly did play tougher opponents, but we managed to rise to the occasion. The 11-game winning streak included wins against New Jersey, Pittsburgh, Washington, Chicago, and Vancouver. If those teams sound familiar, it is because each of them are favoured in the Cup race. If anything, we've managed to play our best hockey against the best teams. We stink against the Leafs, Lightning, etc., but manage to shut down some of those top players in the league. Can this trend continue in our first round series? It isn't a secret that the biggest threat is going to be Crosby. It is hard to tell where Malkin is right now since he just returned from injury, but he's going to be secondary compared to the Kid. Especially interesting to watch will be how Clouston handles defensive matchups on the road. Will Bylsma throw Sid out there against Karlsson and risk getting dummied by Sutton? Or will he go after Campoli and Carkner?

Reason #2: We have NOT solved our goaltending issues.
It's like Ray Emery but he's on time, doesn't rap, and doesn't run people off the road and call them an old bag of bones. Brian Elliott flat out earned the job over the higher paid Snoop-a-loop. Like Emery in 2007, we aren't asking Elliott to be sensational, but rather just make the necessary stops to give us a chance. A buddy and I discussed today whether or not Elliott will have a long leash if he struggles and I honestly think we're going to live and die by the kid. He got us here, not Pascal, and we'll give him the chance to get us to the next round. Pascal is shut down until the Fall, barring injury.

Reason #3: Our top players are missing.
Jason Spezza is on a streak that has silenced his critics. Even more enjoyable is that he plays his best hockey against the toughest opponents when the spotlight is on. He'll need to continue that trend now because he is going to have to go toe-to-toe with the best player in the world. Daniel Alfredsson is ageless and coming off an emotional tribute that reminded him (like he needs it) of just how much this city embraces him. Our best players returned and went on a tear.

Reason #4: Our defencemen suck.
Mr. Karlsson, I owe you an apology. With the injury to Kuba, Karlsson has managed to not only fill the void, but to spark fan insistence that Kuba be cast aside for the younger and more agile defenceman. I'm a tad worried that he still makes some bad mistakes as far as positioning goes, so I hope he simplifies just a bit against a team that will burn us on each turnover. That being said, the kid's gotta eat! Add to the mix Mount Sutton and we're not as bad as the papers would have you believe. We're going to need Carkner and Campoli to hit their stride, as well. Three years ago, Preissing and Corvo were a third pair that was pampered by never facing top forwards and I'm guessing these guys will be in a similar boat this time around. The difference is that Carkner isn't some powerplay specialist like Corvo and Preissing were for us. More committee and fundamental now.

Reason #5: What have we done since the Cup Finals to make you think otherwise?
Our inconsistency is a cause for concern for everyone, but we have become a different team since the mighty Clouston showed up in the nation's capital with his healthy salad and his arena sleepovers. This team competes VERY hard and has a forecheck like we've never seen. Rest assured that the Pens are watching video and planning a breakout, but we have a coach that has probably spent more time watching game film than ole Roger did! The guy is a machine and preparation will not be an issue. This is such a different team than any we've had - a real lunch pail gang. Put on your hard hats and get behind this group - I'm in! This foot tastes delicious!

Quick side note - Pynch informed me that he logged onto the Sens site today and had absolutely no trouble buying tickets for Game 6 back in Ottawa. Why the feck are there still tickets available? We certainly help validate the calls that we're one of the crappiest fanbases in the league. Please let these games sell out.

Welcome back Milan! You've been demoted.

Milan Michalek will likely draw back into the line up on Thursday night against the lowly Lightning. I, for one, am extremely excited to see him back as he will have two complete games to get his legs back before the post season. Huzzah!

Nine games ago when the Watermelon Warrior went down, our fear was once again, 'what's going to happen to the top line?' Nowadays, I'm asking, 'where are we going to put Michalek?'

In Michalek's absence, Peter Regin has stepped up big time on the linea numero uno (for the most part, I think there was some initial tinkering). Let's look at the past 9 games and have some fun with numbers...

Peter Regin has 4 goals, 3 assists for 7 points and is +7.

While this is good, his linemates are better in the same span.

Jason Spezza has 6 goals, 10 assists for 16 points and is +16.
Daniel Alfredsson has 3 goals, 10 assists for 13 points and is +13.

With this production, can you really break up this line to reunite Michalek with Spez and Alfie? I don't think so. The great news is that this provides the ability to work WW into the second line. People might crap on me for this, but I've always kind of thought of Michalek as a second line player anyway. I love the guy, and this isn't to knock him, but to me he wasn't always up to snuff with Alfie and Spez. I think he's more a lethal threat on the second line - and this can really balance out the scoring (even more than we already do)!

And for the record, I don't think Regin's a better player than Michalek, I just think he's been clicking better and putting up results. The numbers are clear. Chemistry's a weird thing.

I'm welcoming Michalek back with open arms for sure, I just hope he sees ice on the second line and isn't rushed to the first. I love this offensive depth of this team and with Regin fitting in nicely on the top line, the potential to stretch out offense even deeper gets me even more excited!

Am I wrong, or what?

And we shall call him...Alfie

Taking my turn in a tribute to our hero, let me be another Sens fan to congratulate Alfie and his family on this amazing accomplishment. Daniel Alfredsson might mean more to this franchise than we can ever measure. Can you think of a single hockey player that defined a franchise as much as Alfie? We rise and fall with his successes and failures and creep to the edge of our seat when he steps on the ice. We scratched our heads with confusion and a touch of pity when he, along with his teammates, struggled against the Leafs. But we stood in his corner. We were rewarded with one of the best playoff performances that we've known when he led the league in playoff scoring, including the Eastern Conference winner in 2007. Have you ever seen a player having his name chanted by 20,000 people just moments before he takes the puck and scores a goal? Epic and legendary.

Oddly enough, South Florida paid a tribute to our captain by sending one fan for every game he has played in this league. Is it anti-climatic a bit that so few fans watched a pretty meaningless game without fully understanding just how important of a milestone it was for our organization? No matter, Alfie accomplished the feat and will be rightfully recognized by his home fans on Saturday.

I didn't want this one to be long as there have been some great blogs and articles this week about Alfie (the Sun actually had quite a few good pieces). I just want to join the masses in wishing Alfie congratulations and stating once again for the record that this guy is my hero.

Stay cool forever, buddy!

Reminder to Campoli and Lee - they wrote your name in pencil

I'm not going to show up here today and say that Patrick Wiercioch and Jared Cowen are fixtures on the blue line next season. In fact, I've often said that Cowen is at least a year away based on his knee surgery recovery and the fact that he hasn't really blown any minds in the past 12 months. But the signing today (or impending signing) of Wiercioch and the report that Cowen will join the team when Spokane is ditched is another reminder to the lesser blue liners that they have yet to do enough in their time here to be etched into the core.

Here's what we know - Chris Phillips is a lifer. Big Rig will know only one team his entire career and regardless of his ups and downs, he'll always be the poor man's Adam Foote and he'll always have a spot on our blue line for leadership and service. Matt Carkner is here for two more years. The guy has shown that he is an NHL defenceman, albeit a third pairing player that, in a perfect game, will only have his name mentioned once or twice for a big hit or shot block.

Erik Karlsson is the future. Bold statement, especially when I criticized his play earlier in the year. But who didn't? We said bluntly that he needed time in the AHL to figure out how to be an effective offensive-minded player while avoided the big hit from power forwards out to take his head off. Whether or not he did this in Binghamton or just played XBOX 360 is irrelevant because he has absolutely been our best defenceman in the second half of this season. He's our third fixture.

Filip Kuba isn't so much of an enigma simply because he never impressed anyone that much to begin with. I've always liked Kuba because he played a simple game, got pucks through to the net, and didn't induce any profanities from the fan base. But his performance this year, likely in part because of a nagging hip injury, has been pretty sad and it isn't out of the question that he's trade fodder at the draft table.

Sutton and Volchenkov. My hope is that at least one of these guys is back here next year. When we first acquired Sutton, I was pumped about the incoming hits and shot blocks but just assumed that his $3M salary was the result of overpayment from a bad GM for a bad team. In order to get Hainsey to Atlanta and Streit to Long Island, GMs pay top dollar. I'm not saying that Sutton is an All-Star, but his performance in the past two weeks has truly been worthy of $3M a year, given what other players make in this league. His hits are insane and he will step in front of any shot (sound familiar?). While A-Train is the preferred option based on age and because we already know his strengths and weaknesses, it wouldn't be that devastating if Volchenkov follows the money and we are stuck with Sutton.

So we have the potential for some openings next year if Kuba is moved and/or Volchenkov or Sutton aren't retained. Does this mean a free pass for Campoli? For Brian Lee? Even after the Picard trade, these guys are still finding it hard to stay in the lineup, or in Lee's case, to stay in the league at all.

Wiercioch and Cowen will be in camp and just like Karlsson and Carkner this year, they'll be given every last opportunity to make the big team. I know it shouldn't come as a surprise to Lee and Campoli that their spot on the depth chart is written in pencil and due to be erased in the next year or two, but it begs the question about why neither of them has truly risen to the occasion.

In Campoli's case, there are so many times where he takes the puck behind our net and instead of moving the puck up the ice (like a puck-moving defenceman should), he passes off to Carkner. Is Carkner the offensive player on that pairing? Campoli just doesn't seem to have the vision of a younger Wade Redden (before you ask, yes, I did struggle typing a rare compliment to poor Wade). Lee, who hasn't had the benefit of icetime up here, has had so many false starts that our expectations for him have just plummeted. I'm not going to sit here and talk about Kopitar and Marc Staal, who Muckler left on the table when he took Lee, because we can all go through and find situations of poor drafting from every organization. I will say that while he does have a bit more time to develop, as most defencemen do take longer to adapt to the NHL (right, Chris Phillips?), the writing is on the wall for the kid.

It is a tough spot for these two guys to play from, nobody argues that. Many defencemen are given the necessary time to develop into solid NHL blueliners. In the case in Ottawa, we've just been stockpiling there and don't have to give them the luxury of time. Brian Lee and Chris Campoli will be NHL defencemen somewhere. I'm just not so sure that Murray will have it be in Ottawa. Your move, boys.

And a quick dose of Bobby Butler - this guy sounds wicked cool. Here's to hoping that he doesn't lose that New England accent.

Thursday Thoughts

1. We're on twitter. I still don't know what the feck twitter is, but we're on it. Follow us, please, so that we feel someone is taking the 15 seconds to read our hockey thoughts. Or visit it here.

2. Kovalev is not playing in Buffalo tomorrow night due to injury. Does this mean that he was playing hurt since the Olympics or will we at least use that as an excuse for his lackadaisical play since the Break? Is it bad that I'm almost excited he's out because it means Chummy will draw back in and actually skate hard and try to score? Listen here, I've made no secret all season long that I was unhappy with the Kovalev signing. Sure, he's shown flashes of skill and has really driven our team's success at times, but I just don't think $5M is fair for a guy that has played as shitty as he has been in the past month. People will be quick to point out that we should have known this when we signed him - my response is that you're right and that's why I'm still pissed that we signed him!

3. I can't tell if I'm worried or relieved that Elliott has taken the reins of our goaltending graveyard. On one hand, it is nice to know that it is no longer a topic of fodder at the water cooler. On the other hand, can you really see Elliott winning a playoff series? Winning two? I hope he has shades of Emery from three years ago - just make the basic saves and give your team a chance to win.

4. The Michalek injury is going to be a huge, huge blow to this team. I know we've won two straight, but we accomplished both with just two goals for the good guys. Michalek is our leading goal scorer and if this injury lasts into the playoffs and God forbid requires surgery, we're in some trouble.

5. On Volchenkov. If you haven't listened to the podcast that the folks at 6th Sens had with A-Traing's agent, Jay Grossman, go check it out. One thing stood out to me as I see Eklund asking fans what they'd pay him. Grossman said that Anton wants to play for a contender not just because he wants to win, but because he doesn't want to spend the prime years of his career blocking shots for a losing team. He's smart enough to know that he'll really have 5 good years left before injuries catch up. Blocking shots is hard work and it is discouraging to do it for a team that can't truly use his services in their quest for the Cup. I guess that means we really need to show him that we're a serious playoff team. And if he doesn't want our money or our team, it would seem like he'd limit his suitors to contenders, unlike some other guys that just follow the money.

6. If A-Train does leave and we can't afford Sutton (please tell me he won't be looking for $3M anymore, or else he's gone), we're going to have a thin defence. I can't imagine that Cowen or Wiercioch will be ready for the big team in the Fall and Lee is still a work in progress. Like we've said before, the East is so bad this year that you can't fault Murray for going for it all right now. We'll fault him later if the plan doesn't work, but that's why he's in the hot seat and we're at home.

7. It pains me to see that there are still tickets left for the April 10th home game versus the Slugs. Why? Because fans should know about the tribute the organization is planning for Daniel Alfredsson for his 1000th game. C'mon people.

8. On headshots - I'm fine with a rule that punishes goons for stupid hits like Cooke's hit on Savard. I'm not fine with every single effing bodycheck being debated at length for what part of the hitter was used to hit what part of the hittee. There are so many bodychecks in a game with varying degrees of impact. There is such a thing as a good hockey hit that leaves the player very badly hurt. Based on the coverage this topic has received in the past few weeks, I'm a tad worried that pundits are going to start saying hard hits are actually dirty hits because the player fell over or lost his helmet. In a relates story, I love the way Andy Sutton has played in the past two games.