While the summer months are normally slow with hockey talk, we typically find ourselves digging deep to discuss anything and everything worth an ounce of interest - but not this year. Our once beloved 50 goal man has managed to give us a real scoop! A huge news story with buckets of speculation. It's made us confused, angry, potentially violent, but overall very interested. So, we talk and talk and talk about it. Then we have lunch. Then we talk about it some more.
And so, as we head into another weekend with #15 on our roster, I'm desperate to change the focus a tad.
While Dominant Dany has dominated our chatter, there's another news story that has flown under our radar. Mind you, this is a story of significantly less drama and intrigue. On second thought, it might not even be a story, but consider this...
Much like our recent coaching history, we have had bad luck, or just poor talent, between the pipes. No this is not a story or anything close to news. Hasek was pushing, what, 50? Gerber was Gerber. Emery was sleeping in. Auld was, and will always be, a back up. Elliot, bless him, was (is) young and unproven. Year after year, we end up disappointed with one goalie or another. And much like recent years, we welcome a freshly painted mask to man our net. Welcome Pascale Leclaire.
Given the above mentioned recent history, you'd expect us to put a lot of focus on Leclaire. Not only is he our new tender, but he comes in with a not-so-proven past. Shaky, injury prone and, well, not handsome - Pascale poses a lot of question marks. And while these concerns were being discussed upon his signing, they were quickly overshadowed by the saga to end the decade.
So let's talk about it.
Personally, I like this signing. I have faith in Leclaire. He's a first round draft pick, he had early success on an awful team, and he's still young. I believe he can solve our perennial goalie woes. That said, and I've said this over and over again, Leclaire will be the backbone to our success. If he's as good as I hope he is, he will propel us into spring hockey. But on the flip side, we will be hard done by without a reliable tender.
This should be a lot of pressure! But, thanks to Heatley, nobody's talking about this. And the longer the saga sags on, nobody will be talking about it. And this, my friends, I think is a good thing. To be honest, I don't know enough about Leclaire to know how he handles pressure. But in any case, being out of the spotlight in a new town with new fans who will be demanding success is likely ok for any goalie. And while the hot lights will no doubt shed some focus on Leclaire at the beginning of the season, it will not be the intense pressure as it could have, or should have been.
So, we can thank Heatley for two things at the moment: 1) He's given us loads to talk about, and 2) He's taken some pressure off our new goalie who lacks any enduring success in the show.
How's that for a change of subject? What do you think? Is the saga a good thing for Leclaire? Does it take any pressure off him? Or have I just rambled on for no good reason on a quiet Friday night?
Friday, August 07, 2009
Wednesday, August 05, 2009
3 Reasons why a Heatley trade isn't close
Don't worry, Biff, I'll come back next and give three reasons why Heatley WILL be traded before camp, but I thought I'd start with the less popular side of the saga. By the way, have we overused the word saga? Our friends over at the 6th Sens highlighted how we kept referring to Kovalev as an enigma, and now Heatley can be just referred to as the saga.But back to our list. First off, this list is more in response to the intense rumour-mongering going on this week about inevitable trade of Dany Heatley.
1. San Jose and a three-way?
Forget it. First off, it doesn't take a capologist to know that Ottawa and San Jose are not likely to partner up on their own. Teams have until camp to get under the cap, but with SJ and Ottawa being at or over the cap, their next move will be to move salary out. So these teams won't work out a trade on their own without some assurances that both teams will fix their cap problems in the same breath.
So enter the three-way trade talk, right? The hot topic is Montreal, for some reason. Montreal doesn't have a single roster player of interest to Ottawa (or at least it had better not) and while the Euge has inquired about adopting PK Subban as his own son, he doesn't crack this year's lineup. So the only way Montreal would be involved would be to provide cap space to us and/or San Jose. Check that: the ONLY way Montreal is involved is to take cap space FROM San Jose so that the Sharks can absorb the Heatley salary. This also assumes that our return from SJ is a pair of roster players (and prospects or picks) that help us save $2M or more in cap space.
There's always the possibility of the third team in this deal being someone other than Montreal, but if the mighty Garrioch hasn't uncovered it, then it doesn't exist, says I. So to repeat from earlier, either Montreal is only helping with salary dumps, or the mystery third team is not the Habs. Does this sound ridiculous yet? That's because it IS ridiculous.
2. The Brian Elliot signing
Everyone was convinced that Murray was holding off on signing Elliot because he wanted to know his cap position after a Heatley trade. So with Elliot signed (last night), it must mean that he knows that Heatley is on the move and how much salary is coming back. Is that the concept? Hogwash! The minute that Alex Auld was traded to Dallas, the Brian Elliot signing became completely independent of the Heatley saga. Think about it - Elliot is our backup goalie and was going to be signed one way or another. The actual salary was probably well known in June. I don't really know why it took until now to actually get the ink on paper, but thinking that the signing is an omen for a Heatley trade is wishful thinking for those that are sick of this guy being a Senator.
3. The Edmonton standard
Whether you agree with it or not, Murray will not take a lower return than what he was getting from Edmonton. That was a fat forward, a young speedster, and a third pairing defenceman. Okay, when I put it like that, it doesn't sound as good. But seriously, he expected to get two top nine forwards (both with potential to be top six) and a defensive prospect. While we might think that since the Oilers offer is gone that Murray has to settle for a lower return (I thought that might be the case), we should know better of this stubborn old man from Shawville. From what we've seen of the GM, it is clear that he would rather just bring Heatley back in the Fall and purge Gator and Schubert before he'll get fleeced in a trade. So unless Doug Wilson the tire-kicker (or some other GM) spots us three cheap roster players, count on the saga dressing in Ottawa this season.
There you have it - the three-way trade doesn't add up cap-wise, the Elliot signing was inconsequential, and Murray is holding all new deals to the non-existent Oilers offer.
Monday, August 03, 2009
Monday Musings - August 3rd
1. So the Ottawa/San Jose/Montreal three way has gone mainstream, eh? Quote from Garrioch's source: ''If the Sharks don't have what the Senators want, then (GM) Doug Wilson might have to go get it from another team,'' a league executive told Sun Media on Saturday. ''The Senators want a proven scoring winger in return and that means you might have to get a third team involved.''. Au contraire, Booboo and source, San Jose does have what we want in guys like Michalek, Pavelski et. al. What they don't have is cap space. Moreover, can you tell me who the hell the scoring winger in Montreal is that we'd covet? They have three guys that can allegedly put the puck in the net and they were all signed a month ago. I'm not saying they won't trade any of those three, but...okay, yes, that is exactly what I'm saying. I believe Plekanec is their next potent scorer and he and his turtleneck can underachieve in la belle province for many more years to come. I'm not doubting the three-way rumours, but either Montreal is providing nothing more than cap space to SJ, or Montreal isn't the third team.
2. The Euge has been quiet lately. Is he stewing in Barbados and burning a hole through his bank statement that shows the $4M expense, or is he over this? The man has a few other business ventures going, for sure, but it is still surprising he hasn't dropped a nugget for Brennan in a while.
3. One more note on the Heatley trade, because there isn't much else cooking this week. Does anybody else think that Heatley is still coming to camp? Granted I think most rumours are nothing more than rumblings since Murray has always managed to keep things so quiet. I've gotta think that the calm before the storm (as far as comments and sound bytes out of Ottawa are concerned) might tell us that something is brewing, and it is something quite different than we've considered. Perhaps it is still something different like Minnesota or Dallas, or as hockeybuzz says, the Rags. And if you ever wondered where hockeybuzz got its Sens rumours, look no further for the source. Final thought - I still say there is no chance that Heatley puts on a Sens sweater six weeks from now.
2. The Euge has been quiet lately. Is he stewing in Barbados and burning a hole through his bank statement that shows the $4M expense, or is he over this? The man has a few other business ventures going, for sure, but it is still surprising he hasn't dropped a nugget for Brennan in a while.
3. One more note on the Heatley trade, because there isn't much else cooking this week. Does anybody else think that Heatley is still coming to camp? Granted I think most rumours are nothing more than rumblings since Murray has always managed to keep things so quiet. I've gotta think that the calm before the storm (as far as comments and sound bytes out of Ottawa are concerned) might tell us that something is brewing, and it is something quite different than we've considered. Perhaps it is still something different like Minnesota or Dallas, or as hockeybuzz says, the Rags. And if you ever wondered where hockeybuzz got its Sens rumours, look no further for the source. Final thought - I still say there is no chance that Heatley puts on a Sens sweater six weeks from now.
Saturday, August 01, 2009
Enough is enough; Oilers cut off talks
Let's think this one over - is this big news or just another blip on the radar? It has been exactly a month since Dany Heatley said he needed more time to decide if he'd go to Edmonton in the completed trade. So when the Oilers say that they are no longer interested in pursuing this trade this week, is that really a big deal?
My initial reaction was one of surprise and disappointment. I truly thought that Edmonton would stay in this until training camp. It really isn't much different than a team pursuing a free agent that is holding out for a better option. Teams put together videos of their program, they visit the players at their homes, and they publicly discuss their interest. In the case of the Oilers here, it always seemed to have a touch of desperation, but it was really just a team doing everything it could to acquire a 50-goal scorer. I thought they'd stay in it as long as it took.
But perhaps the writing was on the wall on June 30th when said he needed more time to think about it. When the Oilers called Heatley's agents to confirm that he'd waive his no-movement clause, the call shouldn't have shocked anyone. Barry and McAlpine must have known that this conversation was taking place and must have passed that information on to Heatley. Regardless of if they thought Slats and the Rags would put together a better offer, they must have had that conversation within their camp about Edmonton and what their response would be. So when Heatley said he wasn't sure, it wasn't about needing more time; it was strictly about hoping that another team would put together a better offer. That clearly hasn't happened and again, I see this as a gross PR disaster for Heatley and company.
Why a PR disaster? Well, they basically held the Oilers hostage and used and abused their offer to go shopping elsewhere. Is it okay for Murray to use Edmonton's offer as a standard to go shopping? Absolutely, because he always knew that he would come back and accept that deal if Slats or Wilson or anyone else wouldn't match it. But Heatley clearly knew before June 30th that he wouldn't go to Edmonton and instead of flat out saying no to Murray before the trade leaked, he let his agents spend the next month lobbying for other teams. If Heatley had no intention of going to Edmonton, then it was the responsibility of his agents to say in mid-June, or at the draft, or prior to free agency, to tell Murray an emphatic no, to stop talking to the Oilers.
And where do we go from here? Most pundits are now assuming that it is inevitable that Heatley is back in Ottawa this Fall when camp opens in six weeks. Some are still thinking that another team might finally step up and find a way to get this guy under their cap. One thing is for certain - Murray's bargaining power just took another hit. If you're Doug Wilson, you no longer have to match the Penner/Cogliano/Smid offer, right? Booboo says Cheechoo/Ehrhoff/1st rounder was already turned down by Ottawa so the question becomes whether or not Wilson feels he needs to up that offer and whether or not Murray feels that Heatley must not return to Ottawa. We've all heard the players, Murray, the Euge and others say they'd welcome Heatley back with open arms, but that has got to just be public relations.
Everyone from Heatley, his agents, and the entire Ottawa Senators organization wants this thing to end with Heatley sporting different threads next season. If the Oilers ship has sailed and they and Heatley don't want each other, then this might just come down to Murray taking whatever offer is on the table, regardless of the return.
Let me as you this: does Murray have to take a lowball offer just to move Heatley, or just bring him to camp and make amends?
My initial reaction was one of surprise and disappointment. I truly thought that Edmonton would stay in this until training camp. It really isn't much different than a team pursuing a free agent that is holding out for a better option. Teams put together videos of their program, they visit the players at their homes, and they publicly discuss their interest. In the case of the Oilers here, it always seemed to have a touch of desperation, but it was really just a team doing everything it could to acquire a 50-goal scorer. I thought they'd stay in it as long as it took.
But perhaps the writing was on the wall on June 30th when said he needed more time to think about it. When the Oilers called Heatley's agents to confirm that he'd waive his no-movement clause, the call shouldn't have shocked anyone. Barry and McAlpine must have known that this conversation was taking place and must have passed that information on to Heatley. Regardless of if they thought Slats and the Rags would put together a better offer, they must have had that conversation within their camp about Edmonton and what their response would be. So when Heatley said he wasn't sure, it wasn't about needing more time; it was strictly about hoping that another team would put together a better offer. That clearly hasn't happened and again, I see this as a gross PR disaster for Heatley and company.
Why a PR disaster? Well, they basically held the Oilers hostage and used and abused their offer to go shopping elsewhere. Is it okay for Murray to use Edmonton's offer as a standard to go shopping? Absolutely, because he always knew that he would come back and accept that deal if Slats or Wilson or anyone else wouldn't match it. But Heatley clearly knew before June 30th that he wouldn't go to Edmonton and instead of flat out saying no to Murray before the trade leaked, he let his agents spend the next month lobbying for other teams. If Heatley had no intention of going to Edmonton, then it was the responsibility of his agents to say in mid-June, or at the draft, or prior to free agency, to tell Murray an emphatic no, to stop talking to the Oilers.
And where do we go from here? Most pundits are now assuming that it is inevitable that Heatley is back in Ottawa this Fall when camp opens in six weeks. Some are still thinking that another team might finally step up and find a way to get this guy under their cap. One thing is for certain - Murray's bargaining power just took another hit. If you're Doug Wilson, you no longer have to match the Penner/Cogliano/Smid offer, right? Booboo says Cheechoo/Ehrhoff/1st rounder was already turned down by Ottawa so the question becomes whether or not Wilson feels he needs to up that offer and whether or not Murray feels that Heatley must not return to Ottawa. We've all heard the players, Murray, the Euge and others say they'd welcome Heatley back with open arms, but that has got to just be public relations.
Everyone from Heatley, his agents, and the entire Ottawa Senators organization wants this thing to end with Heatley sporting different threads next season. If the Oilers ship has sailed and they and Heatley don't want each other, then this might just come down to Murray taking whatever offer is on the table, regardless of the return.
Let me as you this: does Murray have to take a lowball offer just to move Heatley, or just bring him to camp and make amends?
Friday, July 31, 2009
Blueline top to bottom - Gator, Picard, and Lee
Okay, so we're gonna cram the last three guys into one installment so that we can wrap up the Blueliners Top to Bottom in one work week.
Jason Smith
This guy was brought in on a two-year contract to be a wrecking ball on defence and to carry on a long career of top leadership. This guy was fresh off the C with the Flyers and his signing was more or less applauded in hockey circles because he could skate decently and was a rock star as a leader.
What happened, though, was that Gator had lost a step out there and couldn't really keep up with the new, fast-paced Eastern Conference. Gone was the clutch and grab and here were the Ovechkins and Malkins that could skate like the wind. Smith certainly was one of the toughest guys on the team, but he had a tough time with the speed. What really hurt his time in Ottawa, though, was that he had a tough time finding his game in Hartbsurg's defensively responsible system. Doesn't make sense, eh? But Gator quickly became a stopgap out there, a guy that was solid in the dressing room and tough on the ice, but a slight liability against offensive opponents. It pains me to say this because I've loved this guy since he was captain in Edmonton because he'd go to hell and back for his teammates and that is the mindset we need in Ottawa, but the problem is that his time on the ice is becoming a problem.
Best moment as a Senator: The triple minor and game misconduct (16 minutes, if you're scoring at home) he took on Kaleta for trying to run Alfie. The penalty call was bogus, but this was a perfect representation of what Gator brings to a team. You don't mess with the captain.
Worst moment as a Senator: March 7th, 2008 - Jason Smith leaves the game against Buffalo with a lower body injury and nobody has seen him since. Rumours are abound that he is on LTIR and rumours are abound that this is Ottawa's professional and classy way of letting Gator retire with dignity (instead of sending him to the minors). Either way, it is probably the last time we see Smith in Ottawa.
2009-10 Expectation: Honestly and unfortunately, we should probably have zero expectations for Smith this season. There is zero indication that he fits into Murray's plans this Fall and it sounds like he'll either be packaged into the Heatley trade to Edmonton or he'll be placed on LTIR or he'll retire (and his contract will come off the books since he signed at 34 years old). As much as I love this guy and think he is one of the last true warriors in hockey, it appears his time in Ottawa, and maybe even the NHL, are over. We'll miss ya, Gator!
Alexandre Picard
I'm going to be honest with you here - I don't care much for this kid. He is a major liability defensively as he has shown terrible positioning and an inability to handle a forecheck. On the attack, he has a decent slap shot but isn't good enough with the puck to truly run either powerplay unit. Where does that leave this guy? On the third pairing and on the fast track out of town. There were stories that Murray insisted on Picard in the Meszaros trade with TB last year and if that is the case, then I think Murray and his comrades missed one. Kuba is solid, but Picard doesn't seem to have the potential to really step up like a Campoli or Lee. To me, Alex Picard is an equivalent of Brendan Bell but on a one-way contract. Rumoured to be trade bait, I don't think Picard is a lifer here and wouldn't be surprised if he is gone by the deadline.
He was hurt shortly before the trade deadline and didn't play more than two games under Clouston. In the interest of time, I'm not highlighting his best and worst moments in Ottawa. In other words, he didn't make many highlight or blooper reels.
2009-10 Expectation: I'll go a step further than in the Gator analysis because signs point to Picard still being on the roster this season. We know who the top four will be and that leaves Picard in that 14-16 minute range. My hope is that he is peddled out of town, but my belief is that he'll get some time on the second powerplay unit alongside Campoli and will muster up a few points. I'll agree that he has a strong shot and is something that we'll need on the man advantage, so he has the potential to pot some goals. That being said, he'll really have to earn his minutes under Clouston because he doesn't do anything 'great', including positioning. If he can get off to a fast start on the PP and in moving the puck through the neutral zone, he has a shot at getting decent minutes.
Projection: Limited playing time, look at Picard to get 10 goals and 12 assists for 22 points and he'll play to an even plus/minus. This is his last year before becoming an RFA, so Karlsson and Cowen's development will have a lot to say about whether Picard is retained. He's young but I just didn't see where he is going to improve.
Brian Lee
Why is it that so many Sens fans have given up on this kid? Quick reminder that this guy was a top ten draft pick and is 22 years old. While I understand that he was a Muckler pick and that guarantees nothing, and that I just called out Picard, a 23-year old, I truly feel like there is more to come from Lee. When Mucks drafted him, it was when we still had Chara and Redden on contract for another year and the GM was asked if Lee would be ready to step up in two years if one of those guys were gone. Muckler's response: "He better be". Now, it is clear that Lee wasn't completely ready for that jump but we have to keep in mind that players like this take a while to learn the game and fit into their role.
Lee stepped into the bigs two years ago, late in the year, when we choked our way through the 4 game sweep to Pittsburgh. He looked strong on the puck and showed great vision with his movement up the ice. Dare I say, he looked like and NHLer. Last year, though, he didn't really seize the opportunity to be the puck mover that Murray wanted. As a result, Lee is going to be under immense pressure this year to really show a solid step forward. Karlsson, Wiercioch, and Cowen will be on the roster in two years, so that gives Lee this season to show his worth. Add to this that it is a contract year for Lee and we'll see first hand if he is going to have a future in Ottawa. As far as I'm concerned, he is going to make a strong top four defenceman in the league someday. Whether that it is in Ottawa is in his hands, so we'll see what he does with this.
Low moment for Lee was that February 26th game hosting San Jose where Lee took 6 minutes in penalties, a minor followed almost immediately with a double minor, giving SJ the opportunity for two powerplay goals and a 2-1 win. This was seen as a low point and a solid learning experience for Brian Lee as he was taught to shut his damn mouth to the refs.
2009-10 Expectation: Like I said, Lee has 82+ games to prove his worth in Ottawa. If he doesn't become trade bait (courtesy of a strong Karlsson camp and first half), then he'll get third pairing minutes and will have to blow this up to work his way into Campoli's ice time. Like Campoli and Picard, Lee is in the last year of his deal before RFA status, so he needs to outplay those guys and show that he can handle a hit. He's very smart with the puck, but he hasn't figured out how to absorb a hit and keep the puck. It doesn't matter how poised you can be, if you can't take a hit, then you're up Brian Burke Creek.
Projection: As I said, I'm a Brian Lee fan and think he'll go down swinging. Look for 9 goals and 15 assists for 24 points and a +2. Good for a third pairing, but not great. Preissing put up better stats in a similar role. If he can play like Murray thinks he can, he'll stick around:
What are your thoughts? Who of Picard, Lee, and Smith will be here through next season?
Jason Smith
This guy was brought in on a two-year contract to be a wrecking ball on defence and to carry on a long career of top leadership. This guy was fresh off the C with the Flyers and his signing was more or less applauded in hockey circles because he could skate decently and was a rock star as a leader.
What happened, though, was that Gator had lost a step out there and couldn't really keep up with the new, fast-paced Eastern Conference. Gone was the clutch and grab and here were the Ovechkins and Malkins that could skate like the wind. Smith certainly was one of the toughest guys on the team, but he had a tough time with the speed. What really hurt his time in Ottawa, though, was that he had a tough time finding his game in Hartbsurg's defensively responsible system. Doesn't make sense, eh? But Gator quickly became a stopgap out there, a guy that was solid in the dressing room and tough on the ice, but a slight liability against offensive opponents. It pains me to say this because I've loved this guy since he was captain in Edmonton because he'd go to hell and back for his teammates and that is the mindset we need in Ottawa, but the problem is that his time on the ice is becoming a problem.
Best moment as a Senator: The triple minor and game misconduct (16 minutes, if you're scoring at home) he took on Kaleta for trying to run Alfie. The penalty call was bogus, but this was a perfect representation of what Gator brings to a team. You don't mess with the captain.
Worst moment as a Senator: March 7th, 2008 - Jason Smith leaves the game against Buffalo with a lower body injury and nobody has seen him since. Rumours are abound that he is on LTIR and rumours are abound that this is Ottawa's professional and classy way of letting Gator retire with dignity (instead of sending him to the minors). Either way, it is probably the last time we see Smith in Ottawa.
2009-10 Expectation: Honestly and unfortunately, we should probably have zero expectations for Smith this season. There is zero indication that he fits into Murray's plans this Fall and it sounds like he'll either be packaged into the Heatley trade to Edmonton or he'll be placed on LTIR or he'll retire (and his contract will come off the books since he signed at 34 years old). As much as I love this guy and think he is one of the last true warriors in hockey, it appears his time in Ottawa, and maybe even the NHL, are over. We'll miss ya, Gator!
Alexandre Picard
I'm going to be honest with you here - I don't care much for this kid. He is a major liability defensively as he has shown terrible positioning and an inability to handle a forecheck. On the attack, he has a decent slap shot but isn't good enough with the puck to truly run either powerplay unit. Where does that leave this guy? On the third pairing and on the fast track out of town. There were stories that Murray insisted on Picard in the Meszaros trade with TB last year and if that is the case, then I think Murray and his comrades missed one. Kuba is solid, but Picard doesn't seem to have the potential to really step up like a Campoli or Lee. To me, Alex Picard is an equivalent of Brendan Bell but on a one-way contract. Rumoured to be trade bait, I don't think Picard is a lifer here and wouldn't be surprised if he is gone by the deadline.
He was hurt shortly before the trade deadline and didn't play more than two games under Clouston. In the interest of time, I'm not highlighting his best and worst moments in Ottawa. In other words, he didn't make many highlight or blooper reels.
2009-10 Expectation: I'll go a step further than in the Gator analysis because signs point to Picard still being on the roster this season. We know who the top four will be and that leaves Picard in that 14-16 minute range. My hope is that he is peddled out of town, but my belief is that he'll get some time on the second powerplay unit alongside Campoli and will muster up a few points. I'll agree that he has a strong shot and is something that we'll need on the man advantage, so he has the potential to pot some goals. That being said, he'll really have to earn his minutes under Clouston because he doesn't do anything 'great', including positioning. If he can get off to a fast start on the PP and in moving the puck through the neutral zone, he has a shot at getting decent minutes.
Projection: Limited playing time, look at Picard to get 10 goals and 12 assists for 22 points and he'll play to an even plus/minus. This is his last year before becoming an RFA, so Karlsson and Cowen's development will have a lot to say about whether Picard is retained. He's young but I just didn't see where he is going to improve.
Brian Lee
Why is it that so many Sens fans have given up on this kid? Quick reminder that this guy was a top ten draft pick and is 22 years old. While I understand that he was a Muckler pick and that guarantees nothing, and that I just called out Picard, a 23-year old, I truly feel like there is more to come from Lee. When Mucks drafted him, it was when we still had Chara and Redden on contract for another year and the GM was asked if Lee would be ready to step up in two years if one of those guys were gone. Muckler's response: "He better be". Now, it is clear that Lee wasn't completely ready for that jump but we have to keep in mind that players like this take a while to learn the game and fit into their role.
Lee stepped into the bigs two years ago, late in the year, when we choked our way through the 4 game sweep to Pittsburgh. He looked strong on the puck and showed great vision with his movement up the ice. Dare I say, he looked like and NHLer. Last year, though, he didn't really seize the opportunity to be the puck mover that Murray wanted. As a result, Lee is going to be under immense pressure this year to really show a solid step forward. Karlsson, Wiercioch, and Cowen will be on the roster in two years, so that gives Lee this season to show his worth. Add to this that it is a contract year for Lee and we'll see first hand if he is going to have a future in Ottawa. As far as I'm concerned, he is going to make a strong top four defenceman in the league someday. Whether that it is in Ottawa is in his hands, so we'll see what he does with this.
Low moment for Lee was that February 26th game hosting San Jose where Lee took 6 minutes in penalties, a minor followed almost immediately with a double minor, giving SJ the opportunity for two powerplay goals and a 2-1 win. This was seen as a low point and a solid learning experience for Brian Lee as he was taught to shut his damn mouth to the refs.
2009-10 Expectation: Like I said, Lee has 82+ games to prove his worth in Ottawa. If he doesn't become trade bait (courtesy of a strong Karlsson camp and first half), then he'll get third pairing minutes and will have to blow this up to work his way into Campoli's ice time. Like Campoli and Picard, Lee is in the last year of his deal before RFA status, so he needs to outplay those guys and show that he can handle a hit. He's very smart with the puck, but he hasn't figured out how to absorb a hit and keep the puck. It doesn't matter how poised you can be, if you can't take a hit, then you're up Brian Burke Creek.
Projection: As I said, I'm a Brian Lee fan and think he'll go down swinging. Look for 9 goals and 15 assists for 24 points and a +2. Good for a third pairing, but not great. Preissing put up better stats in a similar role. If he can play like Murray thinks he can, he'll stick around:
What are your thoughts? Who of Picard, Lee, and Smith will be here through next season?
Thursday, July 30, 2009
BTB - Chris Campoli
I kinda struggled with who to list fourth here in our Blueliners Top to Bottom feature. In terms of performance and games played last year, Campoli wasn't really around that long. But in terms of depth chart and importance to the team this year, Campoli slides nicely into that second pairing and top four minutes on the depth chart.
I was a big fan of the Campoli trade not just because it brought Comrie back (I haven't hid my affection for the skill that Comrie brings), but because I've seen Campoli as an untapped potential. Whether he was misused on the Island is irrelevant as he's ours now, and the question is whether or not he can thrive under the Clouston model. Campoli is a very strong passer and very strong skater, but isn't great at taking hits or a lot of pressure from a forecheck. If Clouston wants us playing an up-tempo game in all three zones, then Clouston will have to modify his game so that he can make a strong first pass a little bit quicker. Like Kuba, Campoli won't have to face the Ovechkins and Crosbys of the league and instead will be passing up ice against role players.
Another thing that I like about Campoli is that he seems like he's a good dude. I think he knows a good opportunity when it's in front of him, and he knows that his trade to Ottawa, coupled with this being a quasi-contract year (RFA next summer) presents him with a golden chance to make a permanent spot for himself on this roster. The downside is that if he does pretty well and Karlsson develops quickly, his agent might Preissing him right out of here with a contract demand that doesn't fit the structure. We're going to need to keep Campoli in that $2M range after this season for this to work. But that's next summer, let's focus on the now. I see Campoli rising to the occasion this season and putting up similar numbers to Kuba and really establishing himself as a legit NHL defenceman and not just a guy that cracks the lineup on non-playoff teams.
Best moment as a Senator: Well, he only had 25 games in town, so this is a tough one. He put up a pair of assists in his first game in Ottawa in a losing effort to Montreal and went on to post 7 points in his first 7 games. And here's a look at his first goal as a Senator against the Oil
Worst moment as a Senator: Again, not much to draw from as he wasn't around long enough to screw up too much. Plus, Campoli benefited from skipping the Hartsburg era and jumping right into the euphoria of the Clouston era.
2009-10 Expectation: Like I said earlier, this is an important season for Campoli. In fact, it isn't a stretch to say that this will be his most important season in his young career, given that he is being given an opportunity to put up some points and he's up for a new contract next summer. Add to that the pressure of being in the middle of the depth chart with two first round picks starting to breath down his neck in Karlsson and Cowen (three, if you are in the camp that believes Lee will have a big year). Look to Campoli to play 18-20 minutes a night, including a key role on the second powerplay unit. I really think he'll rise to the occasion as he has the speed to play Clouston's system and the hands to move the puck up the ice. His biggest weakness will need to be addressed and that is taking a hit and not giving up the puck in the process. He reminds me a lot of Happy Feet Corvo as he wants to absorb the hit and let the puck sit at his feet. The problem is that the hit can take him out of the play and the puck is there for the forecheckers to scoop away.
If Karlsson cracks the lineup, then I think he's paired with Kuba for the learning experience. If Karlsson goes to Bingo or back to Sweden, then Campoli will get those minutes alongside Kuba and will have a great opportunity to exceed his totals from last season. Kuba can help him with defensive zone coverage without holding him back offensively. Long story short, I think Campoli will be worth the first round pick.
Projection: Write this down - Campoli will be our goal scoring defenceman. Count on 15 goals and 22 assists for 37 points and a +6.
Am I out of my mind with this projection? Those 15 goals would be the most from a defenceman in Ottawa since Chara in 05-06.
I was a big fan of the Campoli trade not just because it brought Comrie back (I haven't hid my affection for the skill that Comrie brings), but because I've seen Campoli as an untapped potential. Whether he was misused on the Island is irrelevant as he's ours now, and the question is whether or not he can thrive under the Clouston model. Campoli is a very strong passer and very strong skater, but isn't great at taking hits or a lot of pressure from a forecheck. If Clouston wants us playing an up-tempo game in all three zones, then Clouston will have to modify his game so that he can make a strong first pass a little bit quicker. Like Kuba, Campoli won't have to face the Ovechkins and Crosbys of the league and instead will be passing up ice against role players.
Another thing that I like about Campoli is that he seems like he's a good dude. I think he knows a good opportunity when it's in front of him, and he knows that his trade to Ottawa, coupled with this being a quasi-contract year (RFA next summer) presents him with a golden chance to make a permanent spot for himself on this roster. The downside is that if he does pretty well and Karlsson develops quickly, his agent might Preissing him right out of here with a contract demand that doesn't fit the structure. We're going to need to keep Campoli in that $2M range after this season for this to work. But that's next summer, let's focus on the now. I see Campoli rising to the occasion this season and putting up similar numbers to Kuba and really establishing himself as a legit NHL defenceman and not just a guy that cracks the lineup on non-playoff teams.
Best moment as a Senator: Well, he only had 25 games in town, so this is a tough one. He put up a pair of assists in his first game in Ottawa in a losing effort to Montreal and went on to post 7 points in his first 7 games. And here's a look at his first goal as a Senator against the Oil
Worst moment as a Senator: Again, not much to draw from as he wasn't around long enough to screw up too much. Plus, Campoli benefited from skipping the Hartsburg era and jumping right into the euphoria of the Clouston era.
2009-10 Expectation: Like I said earlier, this is an important season for Campoli. In fact, it isn't a stretch to say that this will be his most important season in his young career, given that he is being given an opportunity to put up some points and he's up for a new contract next summer. Add to that the pressure of being in the middle of the depth chart with two first round picks starting to breath down his neck in Karlsson and Cowen (three, if you are in the camp that believes Lee will have a big year). Look to Campoli to play 18-20 minutes a night, including a key role on the second powerplay unit. I really think he'll rise to the occasion as he has the speed to play Clouston's system and the hands to move the puck up the ice. His biggest weakness will need to be addressed and that is taking a hit and not giving up the puck in the process. He reminds me a lot of Happy Feet Corvo as he wants to absorb the hit and let the puck sit at his feet. The problem is that the hit can take him out of the play and the puck is there for the forecheckers to scoop away.
If Karlsson cracks the lineup, then I think he's paired with Kuba for the learning experience. If Karlsson goes to Bingo or back to Sweden, then Campoli will get those minutes alongside Kuba and will have a great opportunity to exceed his totals from last season. Kuba can help him with defensive zone coverage without holding him back offensively. Long story short, I think Campoli will be worth the first round pick.
Projection: Write this down - Campoli will be our goal scoring defenceman. Count on 15 goals and 22 assists for 37 points and a +6.
Am I out of my mind with this projection? Those 15 goals would be the most from a defenceman in Ottawa since Chara in 05-06.
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