Shock and Awe

At first, I thought it would be best to let the night pass before putting thoughts together on the Dany Heatley saga. But then I started thinking about George W. Bush's Shock and Awe approach to Iraq and how it kinda relates to Dany Heatley's Shock and Awe approach to farking the Sens on multiple occasions. If Eugene Melnyk was upset this morning, just wait until he wakes up under his barstool at Bert's Bar and gets his Ottawa Sun Sports hand-delivered to him. Billionairs have egos, folks. Eugene's ego is taking a kick right on the button at the hands of a guy that he has gone to great lengths to protect.

Unless we hear some sob story about why Heatley really wants out of Ottawa (his piano teacher broke off their affair, something like that), then the dude has ensured that he is the most embarassing player in hockey. Quick recap in case you've lived under a rock since the beginning of the Cup Finals. Heatley comes to Ottawa in shambles after begging for a trade out of Atlanta. Has a great few years, gets a free pass in the media on his past, signs a long-term deal with his boyfriend in tow, insists on a no-movement clause, then asks to be traded anyway, then nixes a deal to be traded (even though, if you were reading, he just asked for a trade). Oh yeah, he'll also collect $4M Wednesday night at midnight (not Tuesday night at midnight as we had all previously assumed).

Shock and awe, Dany. That's what you've done for us in the past month. You stood quietly in your stall in the locker room while your cloest ally, Jason Spezza, was getting shredded on a nightly basis. Your only sound bytes were quick shots at the press for trying to make a story out of nothing. At no point did it occur to you that you hadn't been blamed for a single piece of the Shakesperean collapse of this team over the past two years? You picked a strange time to be this arrogant, coming off of two straight years of declining production going into Olympic season. You picked a strange spokesman for your point of view in your asenine neighbour that defends your kindness in gracing our national team with your presence.

I can't lie - I was a Dany Heatley fan since the day he was traded here until the minute EJ Hradek broke the trade request story. I go to Ottawa/Atlanta games in my Sens Heatley jersey and take abuse from the few fans that still remember he played there. I love that youtube clip that cut together all 50 goals he scored in 2005-06. But this has gone so far beyond respectable behaviour, I'm kicking him out. The trade request based on feeling slighted by the coach is a bad sign of sportsmanship and character. The silent treatment he's put on in the past few weeks has shown a lack of balls and courage. And the rejection of a deal after four hours of pondering, just to take it up until the supposed midnight deadline for the $4M payout is absolutely and positively criminal. He's brought such incredible shame to himself in the past month that I'm prepared to trade him for a burning bag of shit just to get his name off our roster and move on to a team that wants to be here and play together. speaking for most Ottawa fans, how can we ever, EVER look at Dany Heatley in a positive light after this?

Shock and awe, buddy. Congrats.

Rumour Has It (Updated: 12:35am)

(Update: 12:35) Per Bob, the $4M bonus is actually not due until TOMORROW at midnight, not tonight (half an hour ago). This changes things a bit. Not much, but a bit. On one hand, we still have time to move him before Euge strokes his pen for $4M. On the other hand, he's still a Senator and he still did just turn down a deal to the Oilers. Not sure his neighbour can defend him on this one, eh?


(Upadte: 12:10) Wow. Heatley nixed the deal. When put in a position of rot in Edmonton or rot in the hell that you've created for yourself in Ottawa, he chose the latter. This is absolutely insane! If he hadn't already done irreperable damage to his character before tonight, his neighbour and he certainly finished off the remaining believers. One day, I hope we get to the bottom of this sad, sad story.

(Update: 10:56) All the credit to Garrioch on this as all the majors are picking this up. Eklund added a tidbit that apparently Heatley rejected a trade to Edmonton two days ago. That obviously is not true, just based on the source. But in all seriousness, this sucks for Heatley. Not that I feel sympathetic at all. I actually love it! The dude wants out of Ottawa and will now spend the next five years in a truly miserable city. You think he can talk his way out of there next year? I see the power of the NMC - it ensures you don't get Munson'd out to awful cities. This is obviously an exception because he demanded the trade, so again, no sympathy from this guy. But 5 years in Edmonton? Wow.

(Update: 10:32) Even TSN is getting in on the action and are siding with Garrioch.

So we officially have a stand off of rumour-mongerers. In one corner, Booboo Garrioch professes that a deal is pending Heatley's approval and he's likely headed to Edmonton for a steaming pile. In the other corner, exiled HB blogger Kevin Lee is swearing that he's already been dealt to the Rags. One is a respected member of the least respected newspaper in town, the other couldn't keep it together long enough to stay on an anonymous hockey blogger's site.

After much thought and sway, I am starting to think we're stuck with this contract past the beginning of UFA period tomorrow. I have made it a habit to be 100% inaccurate in all predictions and guarantees, so let's see how this one plays out.

In the meantime, Chris Neil did us all a favour and rejected a supposed 4-year, $1.7M per year deal. I liked Neil and was hoping we'd keep him, but that contract rejection is ridiculous. Perhaps that isn't what BM is actually floating out there. Hossa has also turned down the lifetime contract with Detroit ("you told me you'd beat Pittsburgh again, you bastard people!"), Komisarek is going UFA, and tomorrow might turn into a pretty spectacular day.

One thing is for certain in all these Internet rumours - we're going to be taking back a bad contract. We're just not going to get out of this without taking one back, folks. Another thing is for certain in these Internet rumors - Jeff Goldblum is still alive.

NYR no longer have cap issues

Gomez to the Habs for Higgins. If the Rags send Redden down, then they've just dealt with $14M in salary. Personally, I think Slats just jobbed Bob Gainey. Talent aside, Gomez for another 5 years at $7.3? Yikes! Obviously, the rumours are flying about how this opens the door for Slats to go get Heatley without the salary dump coming back our way. I don't know if that's as big of a deal as much as it allows Slats to play in the UFA market tomorrow.

Top 5 UFA Forward targets for Ottawa

Editor's Note: Okay, so this is pure recycling on my part. I posted these UFA target pieces a week ago and wanted to get them back up on the main page heading into tomorrow's UFA Frenzy. Enjoy.

Even though the draft comes before the UFA period, there seems to be plenty of coverage on the players we might take at the #9 spot for me to try and rehash some of it here. I also am convinced that we’re going to trade up in the draft, anyway, so perhaps we swap that #9 pick for something higher and we pick a player that none of us are expecting to be on the board as it stands.

That being said, I want to look at five potential UFA targets for both the forward and defence positions come July 1st. This first of two installments will look at the forwards. Please note that I haven’t bothered to put guys like Hossa, Sundin, and the Sedin sisters because we can’t really afford them. These five players all fit the top 6 forward billing that Murray has publicly sought and can potentially be signed for a salary that fits our payroll post-Heatley. Let me also say that I’m strongly for keeping Mike Comrie at somewhere in that $2M - $2.5M as a playmaking winger on the second line. With a healthy hip and a renewed season in a strong program, Comrie will come back strong.


1. Mike Cammalleri (last year: CGY, 39g, 43a, 82pts, -2, $3.35M cap)

A healthy Mike Cammalleri is an 80-point player. In the last three seasons, he’s accomplished the feat twice, once in LA and again last year in Calgary. In Ottawa, he would be the first ever ‘second line centre’ that we’ve only heard about in campfire stories. Sure, you could try and bump him to the wing with Spezza, but I think he’d be better suited on a second line with a Mike Fisher type. He has proven that he can handle the heat of playing in a hockey-crazed city, as well, and at 28 years old, he’s got a way to go. The burning question is about his salary demands. We already have a $4.2M second liner in Fisher, so can we really afford a $5M second line centre? In my opinion, he lets you have two legitimate lines that are a threat to score and you really just need to fill the top line with a kid that can keep up with Spezza and Alfredsson.

2. Brian Gionta (last year: NJ, 20g, 40a, 60pts, +12, $4M cap)

This is one that might sneak in under the radar for us. Gionta doesn’t put up Cammy numbers and isn’t a full blown replacement for Heatley, but he’s a guy that has the potential for 70+ pts and is most certainly fast enough to keep up with Spezza. He has the hands for it, too, but he’d have to play on the top line to be worth the salary for $5M that it is going to take to get him. He also turned 30 this year, two years older than Cammalleri. A natural winger, he’d be the forechecker that Heatley wasn’t and while he doesn’t have the same shot as his predecessor, he has far better speed and vision and could fit in better with Clouston’s pressure system. Again, though, we’d be looking at $5M for this one.

3. Alex Tanguay (last year: MTL, 16g, 25a, 41pts (50 games), +13, $5.25M cap)

Here’s another winger that can put up points and he’s been doing it for longer than both of the first two. He’ll also cost that same $5M and doesn’t necessarily have the speed to guarantee him a spot on the top line. Another positive with Tanguay is that he’s a very reliable two-way player that knows his way around his own end and isn’t a liability out there. The one question mark is that his career has been just as much about playmaking as it has been about burying pucks. That’s all good and well, but that doesn’t mesh great with Spezza, who is already one of the top setup men in the entire league. Instead, he might have to play on the second line and that begs the question of who will finish the plays there. Tanguay is a player, no doubt, but he’ll need to score more to really fit our needs. Turning 30 this fall might tell us, though, that what you see is what you get with Alex.

4. Maxim Afinogenov (last year: 6g, 14a, 20pts (48 games), -7, $3.33M cap hit)

Finally, a controversial pick! Afino fell out of favour with the fans in Buffalo a few years ago and hung around simply because nobody wanted to trade for him. There were times when he was rumoured to be headed to waivers just so the Sabres could move on. One thing that can’t be denied, though, is the Afinogenov possesses great hands and great speed. What he seems to lack, though, is heart and desire. Is this because he had to live in the armpit of America for years and was just waiting to get out of Buffalo, just like most of his other teammates? Or does this guy just suit the old stereotype of being a European disinterested in the North American game? The bright side here is that his salary is about to get cut significantly, probably down to $2M or less. Given the talent that is buried in this guy’s psyche, that might be worth a flyer to see if he thrives in a new environment where he is counted on for secondary scoring, not primary scoring. His life on the top line is over, but he’d be a steal as a second liner with 50 point potential. High risk, high reward. Turning 30 this year, Afinogenov has a ton to prove on this next contract.

5. Mike Knuble (last year: 27g, 20a, 47pts, +5, $2.8M cap hit)

Okay, so I’ll admit that the talent and upside has dropped off significantly from the first few guys like Cammalleri and Gionta down to Knuble. But Mike Knuble, who is hitting 37 years old this summer, is your dreamy underrated second liner. He has been averaging a better than decent 54 points over the past 6 years and probably has 2-3 good years left. The only way that we really have a need for Knuble, though, is if we determine that we’re ready to contend within the next few years. If the return from the Heatley trade doesn’t give us roster players and if Leclaire isn’t a top ten goalie, then Knuble is wasted money for us. If we can write off last season as an anomaly and Clouston gets us back into the upper half of the Conference, then Knuble is a great fit for $3M or less. Our hope should be that we see how the first day of the UFA period goes to see where we fit in the conference, then determine if Knuble is a fit.

Left off the list:
Martin Havlat – too much money and he’s as injury prone as ever. Sure, you can drop $6M on a scoring winger that knows the city, but the kid doesn’t play a full season.
Erik Cole – again with the injuries, eh? This guy has shown that he only does well playing as a smaller Cam Neely in Raleigh. Not worth the $4M that he’ll get.

Anyone else at forward that we can get? Let me know.

And now the defencemen - 5 targets for the Sens

This is the second installment (of a massive two-part series) where we identify five targets at forwards and five targets on defence that can fit in with the Sens needs and their payroll come July 1st. Check yesterday’s installment for the five forwards. Today, we’re looking at that ever-elusive puck-moving defenceman. We have the makings of one all over our roster as it stands today. Chris Campoli is an offensively-gifted player, but it doesn’t look like he’s a top pairing type of player. Filip Kuba is a great passer but isn’t necessarily that blue line leader. Brendan Bell? He’s just a seventh defenceman in this league and the icetime he received last year was because we stunk. And Picard? He is like a less-talented Campoli. So where does that leave us? Same as last year, wishing we had kept Chara and scouring the league for an elite puck mover to start the rush. Here are five guys that can tentatively fit that bill.


1. Jay Bouwmeester (last year: FLA, 15g, 27a, 42pts, -2, $4.875M cap)

Alright, he’s the obvious target for just about everyone that can find the cap space to fit a $7M player on a long-term contract. Bouwmeester is the prize of the off-season as far as defencemen go. He’d instantly become Ottawa’s best defenceman and the cornerstone of our blue line for years to come. But there are still question marks – can he play in a hockey market, can he perform in the playoffs, and can he step up his game to hit that 50-60 point plateau that we’d like to see in a $7M+ blueliner? Bouw turns 26 this fall and this is his biggest chance at making a payday, given that most contracts for stars nowadays are for 7 or more years. I think the Brian Campbell contract ($7.1M over 8 years) is close to what we’ll see here. The difference this time is that Bryan Murray has publicly stated his interest and might not shy away from the long contract. And finally, the ONLY way this signing could happen is if Heatley is dealt for prospects, picks, and the ever-important cap space. Few teams can take Heatley’s contract without dumping something back, so we’d have to take less return for Heatley in order to have cap space to sign Bouwmeester. Worth it?


2. Derek Morris (last year: PHO/NYR, 5g, 15a, 20pts, -10, $3.917M cap)

Wow, this really drops off here, eh? I chose Morris over a guy like Ohlund just because I think he’ll be taking a significant paycut and can provide similar numbers. Morris has been doing this for a decade and what you see is what you get – a 35-40 point defenceman that has played all across the league and is still only 30 years old. His days of making over $4M are gone and Morris will have to settle from something under or around $3M in his next contract. The problem here, and the issue I’ve seen in all the available defencemen after Bouwmeester, is that I wonder if they’re really better than what Filip Kuba already does for Ottawa. If nothing else, though, it gives us a replacement for a guy like Gator Smith or Brendan Bell. Morris also gives us a Western Canadian toughness, kind of like a Gator but with more of a knack for the net. He’d be a good partner with Campoli.

3. Mattias Ohlund (last year: VAN, 6g, 19a, 25pts, +14, $3.5M cap)

Here is my concern with Matty Ohlund – he turns 33 years old this year and his career high in points is 36. For a guy that is about to get a raise to something slightly north of $4M, I’d like to get more offence out of him. Ohlund’s strength is that he’s defensively responsible and can quarterback the powerplay. But just like with Morris, can he provide something that Kuba can’t? In a word, no. But he could just add to that strength and give us far more depth on the blue line. In terms of his contract, this is probably his last big chance at a payday after spending his entire career in Vancity. Does that mean we’ll have to overpay and give him more term than we’re comfortable with doing? I’d be open to giving him the same contract as Kuba has, but on the condition that Gator is moved and we have money left over to stockpile some forwards that can score. As much of a novelty as it would be to have a lot of blueliners that can move the puck out of the zone, I cringe at the thought of Chris Kelly being the one of ‘secondary scorers’ taking those feeds. In other words, don’t stockpile defencemen at the expense of our bigger need up front.

4. Jordan Leopold (last year: COL/CGY, 7g, 17a, 24pts, -15, $1.5M cap hit)

This dude got in 83 games last year! What appeared to be a very promising career for Leo was rudely interrupted with a trio of injuries (hernia, groin, wrist) and he has struggled getting his game back on track. That being said, he appears healthy now and finished last season where he started his career in Calgary. The price will be key on this guy because he can’t demand Ohlund money or Bouwmeester term. Teams are going to want to give him a short contract, one or two years, to see if he’s truly healthy and if he can regain his form. Enter the Ottawa Senators – throw this guy a $2M offer over a couple of years, which is potentially more than the Flames can afford, and see what he can do. He can handle the heat of a hockey city (played in the Cup Finals with Calgary in 04) and is still just 28 years old with a ton to prove. $2M is a lot to give a guy that hasn’t even hit 30 points in over five years, but he could potentially give you everything that Morris and Ohlund have at half the price. This is my sleeper pick.

5. Marc-Andre Bergeron (last year: MIN, 14g, 18a, 32pts, +5, $1.116M cap hit)

I was kind of shocked to see that MAB actually put up a very impressive 46 points in 2006-07 in his tenure with Edmonton and the NY Islanders. The kid is 28 years old and while he isn’t necessarily under the radar, I don’t think people realize that he has put up points on bad teams for quite a while. 32 points in Minnesota while playing down in the depth chart? Not too shabby. Then again, this might be the case of Tom Preissing where he gets a ton of powerplay time and minimal defensive responsibilities late in the game. Either way, he’ll be signing for less than $2M somewhere and he has shown he can produce in this league. I’m not sure that he’ll be much different than a Chris Campoli, but again, it is solid depth on a blue line that needs puck movers. Along with Leopold, I think MAB could be a very nice pickup at a very nice price.

Left off the list:
Francois Beauchemin – I see comments from people begging for us to sign this guy. Why? He is a younger Jason Smith and has no offensive abilities whatsoever. People need to remember that so long as Volchenkov and Phillips are in Ottawa (and they are both potentially lifers here), we have zero need to get another shutdown guy. Beauchemin is a good player that has no purpose in a Sens uniform.
Mike Komisarek – this dude is going to cash in at $5M and become a total bust. He had the luxury of playing a tough guy role while leaving the offensive duties to Markov. He’ll leave Montreal this year and become ‘the man’ somewhere else and simply can’t live up to the billing. He’ll want to play a shutdown role but coaches will demand more points and he’ll turn out to be a long-term mess. In the words of Ron Burgundy, he will become a financial and cultural disaster.

Have I missed someone?

Monday Musings

So first, there's the obvious emotion of the draft fallout and still having Heatley on the team. Even if you were sure without a shadow of a doubt that the offers weren't there, we're all still a tad upset that this will drag on and potentially hamper our abilities to plug holes on July 1st.

Here are some other thoughts:

1. Pardon me for thinking that Philly really didn't overpay too much for Pronger. Look at what they gave up in detail:
- Luca Sbisa, a big defenceman with top four potential. I actually think this is the biggest piece based on his age, his size, and the fact that he's already playing up in the bigs.
- Joffrey Lupul, a 50-point castoff that costs over $4M and has consistency issues. Sorry if I just don't like Joffrey Lupul. He plays soft and to be completely honest, I'd rather pay that amount for Fisher and get some grit and 40-50 pts. Lupul was purely a salary dump.
- First round 2009 pick - 21st overall. Good, but far from a sure thing. The Flyers ended up trading down anyway.
- First round 2010 pick - we have to think that Philly is a top half team and that pick will also be in the mid-twenties.
Listen, I'm not suggesting the Flyers got a steal here. I'm just saying that they picked up one of the most dominant defencemen in the league for a kid, a salary dump, and some late first round picks. It's a win-win here.

2. Teams that can afford the Sedins at over $12M on Wedesday include Toronto and Montreal. One reunites them with their old buddies Burke and Nonis, the other puts them in a saviour role with a franchise desperate for one. Can they learn French? I bet Toronto gets 'em and we can further question the 'Brian Burke player' as he loads his Leafs with sissies.

3. What if BM actually does know what he's doing with Heatley's trade request? If Murray truly saw something he liked in the UFA narket, like Gionta or Cammalleri, he'd have dropped his pants Friday night to make cap room and get Heater off the books. Instead, perhaps he knows that there are more teams in need of top scorers than there actual top scorers available. We pay the $4M, let other GMs panic over the free agents, and then recoup through trades. If Minnesota misses on Hossa, the Sedins, etc., you have to think Fletcher comes back a bit more aggressive, no? We have to hope that Heatley is still plan B for more than a few teams. Plus, as I said, maybe Murray doesn't really care to dabble in the UFA market anyway.

Thoughts?